Observers: 5 scenarios for the political situation in light of storms where visibility is zero,

22/05/2012 PM - 2:36 p.m.

As is the case of dust storms that hit Iraq these days, and where there is no Vision, the similar storms hit the political center and make the vision of politicians tend to zero.

According to the Meteorological Bulletin of the political storms came from Erbil, Najaf, where he decided two meetings of the leaders of some political blocs directing something like a warning to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government to abandon the search for a replacement of the largest parliamentary bloc of the National Alliance, which came from al-Maliki.

In this cloudy weather and storms trying to find a way that observers of this country that was plagued by Bacanutaoréh then followed by the occupation now politicians do not care but access to power, despite all the risks of moving the center of an atmosphere lacking the intuition.

In the opinion of impartial observers that there are several scenarios for the political situation after the deadline set by the meeting of Najaf on Saturday to choose a replacement for the current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. and looks forward despite the lack of attention to what intuition does Maliki or the National Alliance.

Scenario One: al-Maliki refuses decisions Erbil, Najaf and supported by the National Alliance, in this case, the alliances of Arbil, Najaf represented by the list of Iraq and the Kurdistan Alliance and the Sadrists, they get to the House of Representatives to withdraw confidence from Maliki or the entire government, the successful will be in front of them look for a replacement is in the political situation Iraq will not be easy and may take months or all of the remaining period of four years of the parliament and the government and the Presidency of the Republic.

According to the constitution, Maliki and his government will remain in power as a government, a caretaker, as if nothing had happened.

The second scenario: that the coalition agrees on the search for an alternative to the owners of the ranks, and hence the names of many competing for the position and the first of President of the Alliance Ibrahim Jaafari, who is nominated by a group of Arbil, Najaf and had he had previously occupied the position and has a deep knowledge in dealing with all personal and the second is Adel Abdul Mahdi, who was a rival of the owners in the formation of the current government has assumed the post of Vice-President of the Republic by the quota system, but months later gave up the post without explanation convincing It represents a mass of the Supreme Islamic Council, led by Ammar al-Hakim Among the candidates of the National Alliance Chairman of the National Congress Party Ahmad Chalabi, who seemed to active these days, despite the storms were the foundations of a new block and held meetings with a number of politicians attended a single meeting of Najaf, which was interrupted by the National Alliance and pregnancy is a message warning the alliance to search for an alternative to the owners and he has now in addition to the daily newspaper, a television channel to pronounce his name and offered as a potential leader for the next period but the problem of influential Chalabi said his enemies more than his friends and most prominent Americans.

Perhaps the Sadrist movement, despite its distance now for the rest of the factions of the coalition is the other with a desire to become prime minister has leaked news of the nomination of Vice Speaker of Parliament Qusay al-Suhail to head the government, and decreed the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, when asked if he could take the Sadrists as prime minister, saying something to the effect that This is possible if packets Sadrists ordered them.

It must be a coalition of state law, a key bloc in the National Alliance to nominate from among its members a successor to its leader, Nuri al-Maliki said al-Maliki gave in to accept to give up voluntarily.

Whatever the Alliance candidate, the formation of the government will take a long time, if not impossible, amid disagreements and conflicts on the positions will remain at the head of al-Maliki government as a government, the current caretaker Hia as if it was not.

The third scenario is assigned after the Alliance candidate for the formation of the government and formed his failure to ask President of the Republic of Iyad Allawi, to form a government a possibility that the long awaited for the past two years in the hope of Maliki's failure and the use of him as the savior of the country of successive crises. It must for Allawi in the event of assignment to find ministers of his government, trying to involve all the blocks, including Maliki's bloc and should have to find the owners of a place in power, such as office, which may by the Chairman of the Board policies laid out and gives him the powers involved, which was not done by al-Maliki because he is inconsistent with the Constitution according to him, and every conditions, Allawi can not easily amid the storms and the lack of intuition political solutions to his problems with other blocs and with people greedy in positions with the Kurdistan region, who wants him to Kirkuk and the oil with the external forces affecting Iraq, when his success, Maliki and his government will remain in power as a government, a caretaker, and if nothing it was not.

The fourth scenario: The forward-Maliki as democratic systems at the request of the Parliament of confidence in him after the accounts for the voices of supporters of its mass and the masses of the coalition to impose a non-vote Sadrists him as well as Iraqi MPs and possibly Kurdish Alliance will vote his deputies of the National Alliance, the independents and some blocks that you want to have a role in the political process and the problem is to obtain a quorum in the voting session, the got the quorum and the vote electronically, Maliki will win the confidence most likely because many of the deputies of the blocks anti-owners do not want to change may bring down their own interests and did not win the confidence, the search will be this time a constitutional candidate shall Presidency of the Government, as the previous Alsinaryoha.

In this case, Maliki and his government will remain in power as a government, a caretaker, as if nothing had happened.

Scenario the fifth and last: the military coup that toppled all those, and the arrival of a national salvation government will divide Iraq into and turns everyone into militias to fight the new situation and storms new and tsunami not only lack the intuition, but all be blind to the fact that they wasted Bouklavathm what they got from the authorities and resources on a plate of gold made by the occupying force.

Everyone was surprised that Maliki will be in the new authority, as if nothing had happened. End