JUNE 23, 2016
PARIS (AP) - Some analysts believe the potential defeat organize the Islamic state's soon in Syria could mean the return of Front victory Islamist, al - Qaida branch to prominence in the forecourt.
He warned Jean - Pierre Filho , a professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris to "look from a relative perspective to partial successes recorded in recent weeks against Daash. "
He said this orientalist" as long as it imposes on the ground in Syria and Iraq is an Arab alternative to the Sunni credible, retain Daash with the most important positions , but they can regain some of the territory lost as we have seen in the west of Palmyra " .
a Syrian expert on the conflict on condition of anonymity that "While the great military recede to Daash hypothesis is still far, it nearest to check in Syria because the popular babysitter to organize the Islamic state where less than in Iraq , the real heart to succeed al - Baghdadi."
- splits and join al - Qaeda -
he said Syrian analyst said a significant defeat and even the loss of tenderness capital of the extremist organization, will not lead to the end of the jihadists in Syria.
he continues that during the four years of bloody conflict that left some 280,000 people dead, imposed a "victory Front", al - Qaida branch, the same as the spearhead of the insurgency on the system and as a competitor danger to organize the Islamic state with a truce other groups Islamic rebel especially Salafis nationalists in organizing Ahrar al - Sham.
he said Syrian analyst "in the first phase will come a lot of the defeated fighters with al - Islamic state to strengthen the ranks of the victory."
" We will use the victory later in a larger sense Sunni - controlled areas in the north - west of Syria, that he has been abandoned. "
in the absence of peace negotiations credible, does not have the population of these regions (Idlib and west of Aleppo and a section of the province of Latakia) yet any agreed political solution to this conflict , which does not end .
They suffer daily raids Russia and the Syrian regime with frequent massacres aimed at children and civilians amid a complete international ignored.
he said Syrian analyst , "everything will work collaboratively in order to further harden the people of rebel areas who feel that he has been abandoned completely."
it remains "Ahra Sham" Islamists , nationalists positioned locally strongly the first military power in the region.
but Charles Lester , a researcher at the Middle East Institute says in a recent article in Foreign policy magazine (Foreign policy) that Nasra Front has consistently in the past four years , expand and enhance its military capabilities.
- emirate of the base soon -
and adds Lester said "Al - Qaeda has big ambitions in Syria , " and is working to make it the country 's new stronghold within the long - term strategy based on " the establishment of the emirate, as the first sovereign of the base state."
in anticipation of the defeat of the organization Islamic state in Syria has sent Qaida dozens of cadres to Syria , according to Lester.
he adds Leicester that among these Egyptian Saif al- Adel single guys Osama bin Laden , who Washington has offered five million dollars for those who help to eliminate it.
but he did not confirm his presence in Syria , never.
he adds the researcher said their mission is to promote the site leader Front victory locally and dispel concern other Islamic groups currently opposed to mostly establish the emirate and prepare for a sustainable move from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Syria.
He continues to Leicester that al - Qaeda can then provide the same "as the jihadi movement , the most intelligent and the best structure and the most credible" as opposed to the extremism of the organization of the Islamic state.
Ray Leicester that this "strategy that will attract a larger number of sympathizers in the Sunni world."
confirms the Syrian analyst that in this circumstance, the classification of "Ahrar al - Sham , " or other "terrorist organizations" armed groups, which Taatdarch several Western capitals it seems, " it would be a disaster."
He adds , "because it will speed up the alliance with the victory and will increase slumped residents in the rebel areas between the arms of al - Qaeda."