The Washington Institute: Abadi is stuck between the chest and the status quo 3/28
The Washington Institute: Abadi is stuck between the chest and the status quo
Political Since 28/03/2016 16:49 pm (Baghdad time)
Translation balances News
Back again the leader of the Sadrist movement to the front of the political scene for a serious challenge for Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his plans to reform the government.
Says the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that no one denies that Ebadi's efforts to fight corruption and replace the minister incompetent government of technocrats and faced resistance several months ago by the representatives of the vested interests of various parties, sectarian ones, and ethnic, that want to maintain their influence and privileges. As-Sadr, who showed himself at first as an ally of Ebadi, shall be paid now toward more radical changes in the government and threatens to get rid of them completely.
Perhaps the next few weeks are critical, but if Sadr insisted on continuing his ambitions to take control of the Iraqi political arena, there may be serious consequences.
In contrast, a possible failure of the uprising by al-Sadr to bloodshed between large numbers of his followers and government forces will, but if successful such uprising, Vstzbb in a complete breakdown of the political process under way in Iraq.
Sadr and reflect divisions among Iraq's Shiites, which are now beginning to show, where revolves mainly conflict about the relative costs and benefits associated with the impending ministerial amendment would play Abadi positions.
The face of the latter now resistance from political actors familiar that benefit from maintaining the status quo, in addition to at least put the chest predictable and more extreme.
Pressure mounted against the reforms proposed by Abadi rapidly since February that. In the fifth of February, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who had authorized the Abadi last summer decided to suspend political sermon on Friday, making a strong reforms.
This step indicates a partial withdrawal from the political scene and left a vacuum filled rushed to the chest. In less than a week, al-Sadr moved and replaced with support for Ebadi deadline ominous, Abadi Giving 45 days to implement reforms under the guidance of the chest, but the latter will seek to find a replacement for him.
Since then, al-Sadr began mobilizing his movement, and led a massive demonstration in Baghdad on Friday, February 26, during which he delivered a speech flagrant front of thousands of his followers, echoing what is usually posed as a representative in its criticism of the government from the inside.
Sadr's speech revealed his desire to take advantage of the current wave of public frustration due to the unstable situation in Iraq, accusing the entire political class of corruption. This included a charge assistants who have become MPs and ministers thanks to his movement.
Sadr asked his followers to carry out a demonstration following Friday, and appealed to the protesters to be more closer to the borders of the Green Zone, where the seat of government and most of the foreign embassies.
Sadr said that the protest will be entirely peaceful, but the threat had existed, perhaps breaking into supporters of the Sadrist movement, the Green Zone if Abadi failed to achieve satisfactory results of the chest.
If Abadi not carried out these obligations, the plan requires the chest dismissal of the current government and replace it Baltknuaqrat who are selected by a committee of his aides rapporteurs and elected through a vote in parliament. However, al-Sadr said that the people will deal with parliamentarians who do not vote in favor of the plan, transforming the parliament into an instrument to legitimize the new government.
Another indication that chest again trying to show himself as a leader at the national level, that is, verbal praise on the grievances of the Sunni Arabs in his speech on February 26. Sadr, this tactic has been used for the first time in 2012, when former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki addresses the attempt to oust him by Sunnis, Kurds and secular parties.
Since chest hair weak Maliki joined the opposition in the hope that presents itself to the Sunnis and the Kurds as a partner an alternative by Shiites.
And realize the other main Shiite Sadr's intentions and other parties; including Abadi's rivals in the "Dawa Party," and "Supreme Islamic Council" ( "Supreme Council").
They do not want to deliver strong positions for "independent technocrats" nominated chest. He insists, "the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council," and "the Dawa Party," and representatives of the Kurds, the government modified the composition must maintain a basic balance in the system, but will have to leave office Abadi also is forming a new government from the beginning. Also try some Shiite figures, including Nuri al-Maliki and Transport Minister Bayan Jabr, building new bridges with policy makers in the United States to show their names as an alternative reasonable Ebadi.
But the difference between al-Sadr and his competitors is that they are actors within the organization and are not interested repeal the existing system.
Not yet clear whether Iran has involved itself directly in the conflict between al-Abadi and chest. It is unlikely that Tehran be satisfied with the government dominated by al-Sadr, given the history of the struggle for power between the chest and the agents close to them, "League of the Righteous" and "Badr Brigade", and contempt for the chest to shed Iran in general.
Valebadi stuck between al-Sadr's desire to make a doll, and among other Shiite forces that seek to maintain the status quo. But Abadi did not give up, but resisted pressure cleric in a speech on March 9 / March, which criticized Damaguiguh chest. Abadi also confirmed that reform must come by working together, not like imposing a fait accompli, stressing his intention to implement the reforms of the Council of Ministers soon, according to the Constitution.
However, Abadi's ability to successfully implement these reforms is another matter. If the obstruction has Abadi ministerial plan amendment or approval in parliament fails to risk an open confrontation with al-Sadr. In the most extreme scenarios, it may cause it do thousands of al-Sadr's followers broke into the Green Zone, but in any case, it will lead to the loss of credibility and overall increase in popular anger. Instead, the move Abadi forward Baslahath and his changes of ministerial, if the situation remains as it is, it will have to appease the "Supreme Council" and "Dawa Party," and at the same time prevent the chest from infiltrating into the process, and his claim that he played a larger than life role in Baghdad.
It will be the way forward turbulent and unexpected. This dangerous situation highlights the fragility of the inter-relations between the Shiite parties and the role of senior clerics in Najaf, which encourages stability.
It would be better now to accelerate reform and or persuade Sistani to engage again in the political discourse rather than wait to see if the chest is already serious about imposing his views by force. Would not be the first time that al-Sadr and his followers to drag the country into confrontation is Gamh.anthy 29 / m n h