Personal Opinion on RV/Removing Zeroes (PART 2 OF 2)
...CONTINUED FROM PART 1
Removing the Zeroes
The thing that really concerns me is all of the talk of removing the zeroes. If the RV happens before zeroes are removed, you may be thinking that none of that applies to you. But you really need to understand what that means to the rest of the world in order to understand whether your "RV first" is even possible.
RV / Removing Zeroes Scenarios
Here are the possibilities as I see them:
- Zeroes are not removed, No RV ever happens.
Good luck chatting with fellow Dinarians for the next 60 years with no results… Not likely.- Zeroes are not removed, RV happens.
Your value of Dinar = the Amount you hold times the new Exchange Rate (D2USD). Great news for us, but completely contrary to countless news articles from Iraq. Not likely.- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1:1, No RV ever happens.
You end up with more bills (one thousand of them instead of one of them) but the "conversion value" of the dinar is the same ($0.00086 per dinar). Not useful to anyone. Not likely.- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1:1, and THEN an RV happens.
This would be great new for us. But again, this is totally contrary to the countless articles that have come out stating that the ratio will be 1000:1 (ie the bills will have the "same purchasing power"). Not likely.- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1, and No RV ever happens
You end up with the same "number of bills" (one 25 note instead of one 25,000 note) but the "conversion value" of the dinar is the same ($0.00086 per dinar). This means that you now have 1,000 times less VALUE of Dinar. The Iraqi people would never go from "toilet paper" currency to 1,000 times LESS than "toilet paper" currency. Not useful to anyone. Not likely.- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1, and THEN an RV happens.
You end up with the same "number of bills" (one 25 note instead of one 25,000 note) but the "conversion value" of the dinar is different ($0.86 per dinar). This means that you now have the same VALUE of Dinar (or MORE if it RV's higher than $0.86). However, even if it went to $3.50, most of us would make approximately 4 times what we initially invested instead of a huge return. So the $1,000 of Dinar that you bought could be exchanged to USD for around $4,000. Most likely. Not exciting, but very likely.- RV happens, and then Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1:1.
This is the same as #4 above.- RV happens, and then Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1.
This sounds great. You may think you're "out of the picture" because you've cashed in already. But think about this. If your Dinar suddenly went from $0.00086 to $3.50, your 25,000 Dinar note would be worth about $87,500. That sounds great doesn't it! Not really, because if the Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1 "with the same value" as the articles state, then a 25,000 Dinar note would now be worth the same as a 25 Dinar note. And why is that bad? Because that means that if a 25 Dinar note is worth $87,500 in USD, a single Dinar is now worth approximately $3,500. That's right. A single Dinar is worth over 875 TIMES the value of the highest currency in the world right now. If you thought that some of the "predictions" of $7+, $8+, and $12+ rates were crazy, think about the new Dinar being worth 300, 500, or 800 TIMES that rate. It's just not going to happen! This is not likely and virtually impossible.
Initial Conclusions
Unfortunately from my point of view, only #6 above matches a likely currency valuation of the Dinar with the overall currency in Circulation from the examples in the Circulation links above. The conclusion I have drawn based on what I know at this point, is that IF the zeroes are removed, we will make at most something like 4 times our initial investment and maybe only break even.
I have heard many people say that a "LOP" will not happen. I don't really know or care what anything is called, but there are very few scenarios of how zeroes could be removed and currency could be revalued besides what is listed above. We only make money in 2, 4, 6, and 8 but the only one that is even remotely likely is #6. I really hope I'm wrong and there's some magical transfiguration of currencies. Or that all the articles about removing the zeroes is not true at all and has just been a big "smoke" campaign to throw us off. But I really can't see them investing that much time, effort, consumer education, and newsprint for a story that is completely fabricated.
I have not bothered to address the timing or the rate of the RV at all. That's because I think the timing and rate aren't really critical details when the likely return is 1-4 times at best. That means if you put in $1,000 to buy 1,000,000 Dinar, then you are likely to get back somewhere between $1,000-$4,000 if scenario #6 above happens. This obviously differs from what most of us believe. And I really don't want that to happen, it just seems the most logical to me.
I don't believe the exact timing of the RV and a modest difference in rate will matter that much if the scenario I think is most likely is what actually happens. However, other than some people that keep "hyping" things, I don't believe this is a scam. I think it is a risky investment that should be approached cautiously. If you have/had the funds to invest and did so without detriment to yourself or your family, then you should hope for the best return possible. I also didn't address any spiritual implications of this even though I'm fully aware that God can and does do miracles every day. I believe he can make anything happen but at the end of the day, the math of the situation is pretty critical to explaining what happened...
Again, I have based my information on news articles and basic mathematics to come to my conclusions and not on information by any gurus, intel providers, etc. This is an extremely complex global issue but to some degree, the math has to work out. Even if governments play games with the numbers of budgets and internal finances, the basic math of currency conversion has to have some basis in fact. Here's hoping I'm wrong….
Last edited by 8th1der; 03-07-2012 at 01:59 AM.
the one main issue that you did not take into account with your analysis is the fact that Iraq is sitting on either the 2nd largest (some say it may be the largest once all the surveys and estimates are done) oil reserves in the world. Whenever you analyze something financial, you have to add the assets into the final analysis and therefore your 8 points are null and void without adding the assets. I guess you could say that it's like valuing a car without adding in what is under the hood.
Yes, as roadrash says, Iraq sits on immense wealth. Gold, silver, diamonds ... besides the oil? I remember poppy3 said "this hasn't happened but 7 times in history but it is about to happen again and this time it is backed by the richest country in the world." It might not be explained solely by economics or mathematical expertise, but maybe just a thing God is doing at this time in history.
If you think today is good, just wait til tomorrow!!
You are wrong.....you have completely failed to address the only purpose of revaluing the countries currency. An RV is done to effect the exchange rate in a way that drastically slows inflation and eases the economic effects of the currencies drop many years ago.....Your interpretation of these articles is wrong and in my opinion the vague characteristic of these articles is why so many Americans doubt the IQD RV because they think the Iraqi people will print their intentions the same way our media here might write articles. This is an economic event first and none of the above options really manage the damage that was done when our country dropped the value of the IQD from $3.22 to .00086 many years ago. The same logic that brought the value of the IQD so long ago to $3.22 will bring it to a new level well above $3.22 once the country revalues their currency. There is no hoping when it comes to the IQD.....I assure you the Iraqi government will get this right! The timing of it all is the mystery that no one seems to have a handle on.
I value your opinion but will have to continue to disagree. While I didn't (but probably should have) address the value of the currency pre-Gulf War, it was not simply a number adjustment. As Wikipedia puts it, it was devalued due to "sanctions placed on Iraq by the United States and the international community and excessive government printing of the new notes." I realize Wikipedia isn't always 100% accurate but I believe that general assessment can be found multiple places. One of the major reasons the currency was devalued was because Iraq was "excessively printing" new paper Dinar. If the U.S. suddenly prints new paper without anything to back it, the value of the dollar is devalued or watered down. The same thing happened in Iraq.
Excessive printing contributed to the devalue of the Dinar (I have tried to find exact counts of currency in circulation at the time but could not). For example, one of the ways the currency could change is that 2 billion Dinar in circulation suddenly becomes 20 billion, 200 billion, or even 2 trillion. But the underlying "value" of the total Dinar that Iraq holds does not increase with the amount of paper that is printed when compared to the other currencies of the world. As a result, the value of each individual Dinar compared to the rest of the international community is reduced. If you could print your own money and increase your wealth against the rest of the world, countless dictators would be running printing presses 24/7. In fact many have but it just adds more "circulation" to their currency and not overall value against the world.
New bills were printed around 2003/2004 but the volume was there to reflect the value of the currency at the time. One way that Iraq can "restore the value" of the Dinar to the Dollar is by withdrawing some of the 30 trillion Dinar supposedly in circulation. If they "remove the zeroes" as they call it and bring in 30 trillion and exchange it for 30 billion, the value of their Dinar against the rest of the world naturally increases (with cooperation from relevant world bodies).
This action doesn't increase Iraq's wealth by itself. It actually just reduces the volume of currency in circulation and the rate at which that currency is compared to other currencies in the world. So at that point, if they wanted to RV from $0.86 to $3.50 or something similar, everyone would say "yeah!" Except (as I pointed out in the article) that your "amount" of currency is no longer 1,000,000 dinar in hand, it's only 1,000 because you had to trade in your old notes for new notes. So now you trade in your 1,000 New Dinar for the USD exchange rate of $3.50 which means you have 1,000 x $3.50 or $3,500 dollars.
You might also want to spend some time reading and comprehending the "Currency In Circulation" articles that were mentioned in this article if you haven't already. It explains how grossly unreasonable the "value" of Iraq would be if 30 trillion dinar (as a currency) were suddenly worth 100+ trillion USD rather than 25-26 billion.
Again, I'm not disputing the concept of an RV, I'm just stating that if the currency models I listed above happen to be the end result of all of this activity, then we don't end up as wealthy as we think we will be. If Iraq had the exact same currency and volume as they did in 1980, I wouldn't have any trouble believing the possible 3,000-4,000 return on investment. But as it is, a LOT has changed since then and I don't believe it's going to work out the way the majority of people that are in this investment think it will. As I stated above, I hope I AM wrong and will be happy to come back here and say so in huge letters if I end up cashing in for a major return.
Did you listen to the Radio Show On the re-denomination that was put up yesterday by the owner of the web site Dinar Daddy(Roger)
Looks like he agrees with you
Pick any scenario you want, but the key is HOW to exhange your dinars. The CBI can require all exchanges for lower denoms to be in country only. Under the current currency restrictions, you can only bring 10k into or out of iraq. Along comes the MSB people again wanted to charge you a spread for the new paper....This is the next step in their charade.. I do not believe that any iraqi currency will trade via the forex until it has been redenominated. Ask any Vet that has been in country and they will tell you that the Iraqi people hate the U.S. and all coalition countries that invaded them. Do you really think that the GOI wants to make all of us rich?....Also...call your banks and ask them them the tough questions. They Will give you the straight answerrs and tell you that there are no preparations being made and no bank packages for dinar holders....I would hope that the more intellectual bank people would come on these sites and set the record straight......many people are in way too deep and need help.....Just an old army vet
10 reasons why the IQD will not LOP
1. Monetary policy was a success talking inflation from 35% or higher to around 7% currently.
2. Any type of currency devaluation (LOP) is considered a failure of monetary policy. Dr. Shabibi has not failed.
3. Lesser value notes in circulation such as 50, 250, 500. Devaluing the larger 3 zero notes would make them worth less than these lesser notes.
4. Iraq wants the dinar to be an international reserve currency. Cannot devalue the notes in reserve (25,000), circulate them as payment, or traded amongst countries.
5. Iraq holds arguable the second largest oil reserves and is mineral rich. They are too wealthy to not honor the value stated on the notes.
6. Iraq has stated..They want the “strongest currency in the Middle East” Any such type of LOP would be a devaluation and therefore not considered strong.
7. US holds dinar as a result of funding the CBI's initial reserves. This dinar will eventually payoff the war debt.
8. One of the authors of the currency exchange plan - Assistant Professor Dr. Fadel states in his documentation, “We must emphasize the extremely important issue is that if you remove three zeroes from the currency should not affect the actual value thereof to be trading in the old currency…”
9. In 2003 when the NID was introduced at it’s initial rate, the previous currency was in essence devalued taking all wealth from the country to prevent funding of terrorism. Raising the currencies value will in essence, return that wealth now that the GOI is stable and economic conditions have improved.
10. The CBI has stated “both currencies will co-exist” and the process will not change the “monetary value” of the dinar.
Enorste on the LOP
______________________
Enorrste Response to Lopster
The article below is based entirely on a false premise. Once it is shown that the premise is false then the remainder of the content of the article fails as well.
The premise of the article is that the money supply, M2, which is now said to be 70 trillion dinars, will remain at that same level. I will not dispute the M2 number but will state clearly that the CBI is on record that the currency now in circulation (i.e., physical currency) is about 30 trillion dinars. This is a direct statement from the CBI. They have made this statement to indicate that it is way too high. Furthermore, in the same articles that have this statement there is another statement which is that the goal is to REDUCE the money supply in Iraq to about 25 billion dinars. It blows my mind that the writer of this article fails to take into account the very statements of the CBI that deal with this specific issue.
Furthermore, the CBI is on record on this matter and has been since 2007! When I wrote my book I included an article from 2007 in which Al Zubaidi, the head of the Ministry of Finance at that time, had recommended to Shabibi, head of the CBI, that the money supply be reduced from the then 25 trillion dinars to about 25 billion dinars "as it was before the Saddam Hussein regime." In that same article he recommended that the dinar RETURN to the value of $3.33 per dinar that it held prior to the Saddam Hussein regime. Again, as noted in my book, Shabibi accepted that recommendation and a 5 year plan was created to implement it.
Because of the election the timing has been delayed somewhat, but the plan is still being implemented. More recent articles explain clearly that the goal is now to bring the dinar initially to "about $1", after which it will rise gradually to the level of equilibrium, which will be over $3.00. Furthermore, the process will include REDUCING the current money supply to 25 billion dinars to affect this change. This is in CBI articles, not "guru-speak." All of this can be found on DinarAlert.webs.com.
The question then becomes as follows: how will they reduce the money supply? The answer is the "remove the three zeros" project! During the last year the large denominated notes have been gradually withdrawn from the market and are being stored at the CBI for eventual destruction. The reason for the "dollarization" that is evident in the country is because there are fewer and fewer dinars available to the general public. Even banks can no longer obtain new larger denominated notes in Iraq (there is an article stating this point, incidentally).
At the time of the $1 RV most of the large notes will have been pulled in. Shabibi is on record that as of last year already over 50% of them were removed, and at the beginning of this year it was over 75% removed. The CBI has stated that now "all preparations" for the implementation of the issuance of the small denoms is now complete. They are ready to raise the value of the IQD to about $1.
At the time that they do this they will issue the EXISTING small denominated IQD that was printed in 2003 and has been held in vaults since that time at the CBI. AT THE SAME TIME they will begin destroying the large denominated notes. Between the RV date and the end of this year most of the remaining large notes will be deposited in banks, since they will be worth $5,000 to $25,000 each (!) and they will also be sent to the CBI to be destroyed.
In January 2013 the NEW CURRENCY will be issued with 3 languages. The EXISTING CURRENCY (now almost all small notes entirely) and the NEW CURRENCY will COEXIST until the middle of 2014, after which all of the EXISTING CURRENCY will be withdrawn as it wears out, leaving only the NEW CURRENCY in Iraq. The plan is to print only 25 Billion NEW dinars!
The PROCESS of "removing the three zeros" will reduce the money supply to 25 billion dinars. This is NOT guru magic. It is a clear statement of the intent of the CBI.
Now, with $63 billion in reserves currently, and with a projected money supply post RV of 25 billion dinars at about $1 each, then the total money supply will equal about $25 billion. This means that Iraq will have almost 250% coverage of their money! This will make the dinar the strongest currency in the world, by far.
Finally, it must be asked what will happen to the 5 to 7 trillion dinars that are outside of Iraq. The CBI has clearly stated that this money will become a "world reserve currency" for "a long time", quoting Saleh himself (all of these articles are on the web site and have been discussed thoroughly by Kap, Russell, and myself on numerous conference calls). Therefore, they will NOT be included in the "effective" money supply in Iraq, any more than the Dollar is counted as it sits in reserves all around the world.
The writer of the article I am discussing is obviously well intentioned, but also ill informed. Had he done his due diligence and read all of the abundantly available information directly from the CBI he would have been educated on the "remove the three zeros" project enough to know that it is NOT A LOP and that it is clearly an RV at "about $1" just as the CBI has been saying for over a year now.
The EXISTING CURRENCY will remain legal tender, per the CBI, throughout this process. This means that we will be able to cash in at the $1 rate at least through the middle of 2014. Again, this is directly from the CBI.
While I appreciate that the "lopster" writer wants to educate, I believe that it is incumbent for him to educate himself before he tries to educate others. By spreading the drivel that he has, he not only shows himself to be ignorant of the facts but also does no service whatsoever to those who read his drivel. This comment is not a "put down" on the writer personally. It is only a total TRASHING of the content of his writing. I do not attack persons; I attack fallacious content. Ignorance is not a pejorative term: it simply means that he is not well informed.
Enorrste
Kaperoni: I thought the PDF Paper (document) from Dr. Bakri was so good, so informative, I wanted to do a chat on this. To break down the events and clarify what we know.
Kaperoni: First, who is Dr Bakri?
Kaperoni: He is on the Administration and Economics staff at the University of Babylon
Dr. Kazem Jawad Al Bakri teaches in the Department of Finance at the University of Babylon
Well respected Economist. Has been hired by the CBI to participate in the various Symposiums around Iraq educating in regard to the “delete 3 zeros,” also known as “lift 3 zeros” process.
Kaperoni: I think we can say this man is very well educated, knowledgeable and experienced. So much so, in fact, that the CBI relies on him to speak at these various Symposiums to explain what is about to happen to the currency.
Kaperoni: Here are a few of the news articles supporting Dr. Bakri’s participation in various Lectures and Symposiums.
Kaperoni: https://www.ikhnews.com/news.php?action=view&id=34445
Kaperoni: https://www.crdiq.org/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=674
Kaperoni: I think we can draw from this information that Dr. Bakri is an authority, an expert, and is well informed in this event. Much more so than any “part time” guru or educated person who thinks they know what is happening within Iraq. Even someone who claims to be a “currency/investment analyst” has to take a back seat to this man's knowledge, experience, and expertise in the circumstances within Iraq. After all, he is one of the “trusted” ones to disseminate this process to the Iraqi people.
Kaperoni: Now that we have qualified him, lets take a look at one of his papers…from June, 2011
Kaperoni: Proposal to raise zeros from the dinar Ala a paper - A. M. D. Jawad Kazem al-Bakri
Kaperoni: https://www.uobabylon.edu.iq/uobcoleg...8%A7%D8%B1.pdf
Kaperoni: Here is the first quote…
Kaperoni: “The history of modern economics tells us that many nations in the world such as the countries involved in WW1 and WW2 or most recently the collapse of the Eastern Bloc countries, have taken one of these two measures, either by changing the whole national currency or eliminating zeros from the currencies so that it can go back to its previous stable condition.”
Kaperoni: This is pretty straight forward. That there are two ways or methods to go back to the previous stable condition after such events like a war. You either eliminate zeros from the currency (LOP) or do a currency change (transition from one set of notes to another without the zeros).
Kaperoni: Now here is where we learn what Iraq is really doing. Despite all the articles, misdirection, and confusion with terminology this quote tells us exactly what is happening….
Kaperoni: “In the Iraqi experience after the fall of the dictatorial regime, the present authorities have decided to change the Iraqi currency to a new currency.”
Kaperoni: This is absolutely the most direct and powerful statement we have heard. This is not an opinion, but a factual statement…"the present authorities have decided to change the Iraqi currency to a new currency”
Kaperoni: Now this also tells us that they are NOT deleting the zeros off the notes. And it tells us that “collecting the notes” is what is happening to reduce the money supply. It also tells us that we have been accurate all along on the research we have done on this investment. Here is the telling part -- we did not know this information until just a few days ago. Which then ends up being a “validation” of the research.
Kaperoni: Next quote…
Kaperoni: “This does not affect the value of the dinar so far but it opens the dinar to the free currency market such as against the dollar, etc.”
Kaperoni: Now this quote is simply amazing. It is telling us that the value of the old dinar (3 zero notes) is not effected. Clearly, this is what we want. Some may want to interpret this saying “yes the value does not change and the exchange rate also stays the same,” ie (LOP) Well this next quote…puts an end to that theory as well...more proof yet to come…
Kaperoni: “If three zeros were lifted from the IQD, this means the IQD becomes stronger 1000 times in terms of value.”
Kaperoni: This in itself is all we need to be assured of our investment. But the good Dr. gives us the dagger in the LOPster heart with this gem of an example…
Kaperoni: “For example, a pack of cigarettes that was selling for 1000 dinar would be only 1 dinar. If it was a conversion like that, if the three zeros were lifted from the previous currency, this means the old 1000 dinars will buy 1000 packs of cigarettes instead of 1.”
Kaperoni: He states clearly the previous currency (3 zero notes) will buy more after this event. That the dinar will appreciate in value 1000 times. No more discussion is needed...But wait, he is trying to explain this event so we will get even more confirmation...lol
Kaperoni: Quote…
Kaperoni: “From a theoretical point of view, when three zeros are lifted from the IQD its buying power will increase drastically so that the dollar will be equivalent to 1.5 dinars only.”
Kaperoni: And this one…
Kaperoni: “Therefore, let’s say the merchandise imported from abroad is valued before lifting the zeros at 1.2 million dinars, or $1000; if you lift the three zeros 1200 dinars will equal $1000; therefore, that will not bring any negative impact on the Iraqi citizens.”
Kaperoni: And the benefits of the event…
Kaperoni: “On the positive of lifting the zeros from the IQD, the operation of lifting three zeros from the IQD, according to a study and sound physical policy, will lead to these positive factors:
1. It increases the monetary power of the IQD to buy things.
2. It increases the value of exchange from the dinar to other currencies.
3. It provides more confidence for more foreign investment in the economy.
4. It increases the confidence of the Iraqi citizen in his own currency, as is the case with the dollar and other currencies in their own countries.”
Kaperoni: This is simply the most powerful explanation and description of what is going to happen that we have ever had in print from an expert in Iraq. An explanation that is right on with our own research studying this event for over 4 years.
Kaperoni: Pray that the GOI is formed, that stability continues, and that Dr. Shabibi can accomplish this event.
Kaperoni: Done.
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