Gradual oil prices rise above $ 60 in 2020
He noted Masood Ahmed of the International Monetary Fund in a report of regional economic outlook in 2016 to the big loss incurred by oil-exporting countries as a result of lower oil prices, pointing out that these markets must be subjected to adapt and the current situation which may continue for several years. As for oil prices, he noted that it would rise a little Ahmed and this will rise gradually, however, that prices will remain relatively low and is expected to reach $ 60 in 2020.
Ahmed explained that this will require further adjustments in spending and increase levels of taxation, should these countries take bold decisions such as the removal of subsidies on fuel prices as it did the United Arab Emirates, and in the review of the public sector because of its great cost to the state budget.
He added about the oil-importing countries, it is with lower oil prices and political reforms undertaken by these countries, such as Egypt and Morocco beginning to feel the improvement in the situation where, especially with the presence of substantial assistance provided by a group of countries, including Saudi Arabia.
The report predicts that global economic growth of 3.6% in 2016, up 0.5 percentage points from 2015, thanks to the limited recovery in the advanced economies and improved conditions in emerging markets. This forecast is based on a range of favorable factors, including the continuation of major advanced economies take advantage of the supportive monetary conditions and lower commodity prices, and improved conditions in emerging markets and developing countries with the recovery of growth in the faltering economies.
But the report notes that the downside risks are still high and include the transformation of growth model in China and the challenges of funding due to the high dollar as well as the geopolitical tensions and the associated consequences.
Ahmed concluded by saying that 2016 will be difficult for the region, but it is a good moment to rethink economic development and unleash the energies of the private sector and encourage young entrepreneurs in the region and overcome the obstacles in front of entrepreneurs to support various projects.
He added that the increased risks faced by the financial sectors in the oil-exporting Arab countries, as it causes the drop in oil prices to slow the growth of deposits, as well as to slow down credit growth in some cases.
For the Arab oil-importing countries begin economic recovery gaining momentum in the Arab countries is expected that the growth of regional GDP up to 4% in 2015-2016 a reflection of the increased demand for imports from Europe and the decline in oil prices, and reforms.
However, the improved growth in the region is not widespread, reflecting primarily improved the prospects of some countries and the efforts of Morocco in supporting the stability of the economy policies pushed growth forecasts to 3.7%, while the recovery subdued in Lebanon, Tunisia, Jordan is still due to the impact of regional conflicts.
For his part, gave Gideon Rose, editor, "Foreign Affairs" director's report State of the World in 2016 which discussed a wide range of political, economic, global and regional issues. Where he reviewed the conflicts and crises existing and conflict zones that will be most prominent during the next year the political level. As Gideon Rose made a project expected political changes in the United States, Europe, China and the Arab world.
The report predicted the continuation of armed conflicts and proxy wars in the region.
On the situation in Yemen, the report pointed to the success of the Alliance in achieving the bulk of its objectives but predicted difficulty of reaching a lasting settlement without external interference diplomat actual and commitment by local parties.
On the economic level, the report introduced a number of expectations about growth in the world economy and the region. Where it is expected a continued decline in oil prices, with the stability of the budgets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the event of revision of the government support or taxation.