Levant is facing the threat of disintegration 12/21
Levant is facing the threat of disintegration
December 21, 2015
On the eve of talk about a comprehensive settlement in the Middle East, following the closure of the fileThe most difficult files, any Iranian nuclear file, at the time of the decline of the "Arab Spring", as if the Middle East, which has seen the light, on the eve of the First World War and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1919, is formed again at the beginning of the third millennium entities new Arab states.
Made director of the French and US intelligence remarks at a conference on intelligence, organized by George Washington University in Washington, DC, October 27 / October 2015, said French intelligence director, Bernard Bajolet, said that "the Middle East as we know it is over, never to return," said that countries, such as Iraq and Syria, will not Never Tstaida former border. He added: "We believe that Syria is divided on the ground. The system does not controlled only a small part of the country, a third of the area of Syria, which was founded after World War II. Kurds dominate the north, and we have this area in the center controlled by the organization Daash. " He added that the same applies to Iraq, and said he did not believe that there is a possibility to return to the previous situation. " He Bajolet was "confident" that "the region will stabilize again in the future. But, according to any lines? Answer "At the moment, I do not know. But, in any case, it will be different from those painted after World War II. " He was CIA director, John Brennan, the point of view close to the viewpoint of his French counterpart. He said: "When I look at the destruction in Syria, Libya, Iraq and Yemen, it is difficult to imagine the existence of central governments in these countries, able to exercise control or authority over this border painted after World War II."
If you, the French Arab countries mentioned by the two officials, The US, on the way to the demarcation of new borders, and the demise of the central state, which was the Sykes - Picot have drawn limits to the influence of France and Britain, which were constitute a millstone in the balance of world powers at the time.
Read the whole and heard about the plans developed, and maps drawn for the Middle East, most notably Strategic plans Albraitani- American, Bernard Lewis. The many sources talking to some Arab countries not to divide the stomach maps based on the advance, but on the facts of demography, the thinking and planning centers of study and analysis, and to identify the characteristics and needs and demands.
Planners chose to use the "federal" phrase, being more attractive and less exciting than the word "division", and especially the federal implemented in many countries, such as Switzerland and the United States, as these two countries are considered the most successful countries in the application, what is useful in confirmation of the correctness of the federal advocates .
And federalism is the federal, the political system would do concentric between two, or a group of countries or mini-states, and the federal state established the disintegration of a unified state to states with internal independence, linked by a central government, and the units formed by the federal considered the constitutionality of units, no units administrative Kalmhafezat in unified state, and each unit constitutionality of the statute (the Constitution) which defines the legislative, executive and judicial powers, but the Federal Constitution imposes its presence directly on all citizens of these states, without the need for the approval of local authorities.
We have seen the collapse of the Baath party in Iraq, after the former Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, military adventures, ranging from the Iran-Iraq war to the invasion of Kuwait, leading to the fall of Baghdad under US military occupation, and exposed the hidden about the destruction of Iraq as a state, showed the fragility of people milled sectarianism and racism (Sunnis and Shiites, Arabs and Kurds to what there is of minorities and other groups).
With the fall of the central state, it was natural that the struggle for power take ideologically devastating turn, the Iraqis tried to Shiites compensate for the long oppression, and their exclusion from decision-center, domination and bullying in power under the American occupation. The poor experience at all levels, politically and socially, which led to the availability of sedition factors that opened the door for foreign intervention, in the absence of leadership of the Arab political reference for qualified and able to heal the rift, corruption sedition climate, and especially that the factional Iraqi Governing drowned in prolonged corruption.
The occupation US to Iraq, have been dedicated in the federal Constitution that prevailed on the ground, and penetrated the souls, and rips the Iraqi social fabric. Here we are, at this stage, experiencing the most serious manifestations drop the border between Iraq and Syria far Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the declaration of an Islamic caliphate.
What we are seeing crises rule in Iraq, it is imperative that leads to their requirements and needs and institutions of all federal application, in the end, of During the justification and logic of the implementation of the provisions of the constitution. With great success for the Kurdistan region which is witnessing a situation in a safe investment and a growing movement, and serve as a model for the federal importance and lucrative returns.
Syria and Lebanon
is self-evident, that expands climate strife in Syria, with the exposure of Bashar al-Assad, who faced fierce opponents and fierce face, and quickly became an armed opposition factions, some of which are struggling to drop what it calls "the Alawites monopoly" power five decades. It was natural, given the expansion Aldaasha, and the growing fundamentalist organizations, and appearing resounding to the "Islamic state in Iraq and the Levant," which penetrated his troops land of Iraq Almtvkk, and he entered Syria, which has bedeviled the army war, any Syrian war known regional and international foreign intervention, from RCI intervention Rossi directly to confront the "Daash", in light of increased talk of a political settlement, leading to the body transitional provision, and in preparation for the elections decide the fate of President Bashar al-Assad and his regime. Add to constitutional amendments, including the amendment recognizes the rights of religious and ethnic minorities, (according to the Iranian initiative), at a time when installing the limits of sectarian mini-states with iron and fire fighting taking place.
"The US occupation of Iraq, have been dedicated in the federal Constitution that prevailed on the ground, and penetrated the souls, and rips the Iraqi social fabric. Here we are, at this stage, experiencing the most serious manifestations drop the border between Iraq and Syria, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi far declaration of an Islamic caliphate. "
But as long as affected Lebanon fluctuations in the region, be sure to what is happening, and has happened and will happen, in Syria, led, and lead to deep imbalances in Lebanon, which is a natural for Syria extension, Here is witnessing deeply divided in its political system structure, as well as lacerations social fabric, where suffering Lebanon bug from the settlement, which is sectarian. Worse still, he entered into a tunnel of sectarian strife, add to the vigilance of terrorism in its regions, claiming that the interference caused by Hezbollah in Syria. The news of Lebanon live under sectarian wars and the wars of others on their land, and that guns by the Taif Accord stopped in 1989, and which can be considered the legal basis of what could be called "federal sects in Lebanon", which was run by the Syrian will to so far as I knew Cedar Revolution In 2005, shortly after the assassination of former government, Rafik Hariri, which plunged the country into a strong division between the components of Lebanese society, where he lived the Lebanese hot and cold donations over the past years. At present, the country has brought to the state of vacuum in power of the presidency, full paralysis of constitutional institutions, at a time when the Lebanese state in a state of corruption rife, and the sharing of community leaders legacy of the central state through the distribution of resources and benefits and spoils, in order to enhance the default sectarian Dwylathm waiting for the moment appropriate to devote realistic, under a variety of labels, from administrative decentralization to the extended decentralization, all the way to the federal ask explicitly. And all this in a state of political and institutional sterility, allowed to bypass the internal crises that await territorial compromises, to know something of Ahalhalh and out of the bottleneck.
In Libya and Yemen
in the far end of the Arab world in North Africa, in Libya, which mired in tribal conflicts exhausted the country and the people, can be expected to entrench the divide tribal, and the return of the three regions, as suggested so tenderly Declaration in 2012, which was considered the Middle provinces federally federally, and it was It was preceded by the uniqueness of Misrata in the west to elect a local council. The federal trial in Libya had fallen in 1963 after amending the constitution. Despite the split Libya on federalism, in the absence of express international sponsors to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi's views, as pour oil interests with the unit, the fact that Libya appropriate alternative for other countries. Note that the Cyrenaica region managed to export the first oil tanker, away from the supervision of the central government in Tripoli.
In the Persian Gulf, there Yemen who was accused of happiness, which is innocent of them, and only misery and poverty known in the history of modern and contemporary, a country that knew Bsultnat, that became the Sultanate of skilled British protectorate in 1886, then annexed after Protectorate of Aden, and refused to Mahra Sultanate to join the Federation of South Arabia, and then canceled with the evacuation of British troops in 1967. This Yemen who lived a long way between split into two states and state unit and wars long and conflicts Until the moment of the Arab Spring and the start of a revolution, led to the Commission on dialogue, outputs endorsed the idea of the federal state, which was formed from six regions, add to separatist sentiment in the south. But, here is Yemen live a great civil war, Arab, regional and international interventions, you want to tinker in the Arabian Gulf, and make them wandering in deadly conflicts, in order to draw new maps her. It can be said, about everything that is happening in Yemen, various manifestations and Tmzarath and facets, that reading from a written address, and this in itself is scary.
Happening in Sudan
Sudan needs to another telescope, depending on the political track, and what happened in it attempts to establish a federal system, and in the end, he received a disconnection between and south Sudan, after Sudan remained unknown to the world, Bgalb geographical and political boundaries, in terms of being Africa's largest country, and considered Miniature diversity of the African continent's image, and despite the 1924 revolution and the role of revolutionaries White Brigade Association, which formed a compact unit against British colonialism. However, the colonizer succeeded sowing the seeds of the distinction between the South and the North, so that resulted in two civil wars two long, until I give the south in July 2005 autonomy for a transitional period of six years, and signed, on January 9 / January 2009, the Naivasha Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and provided the right of self-determination, where he was a referendum on self-determination in early 2011, and the voice of Southerners strongly in favor of secession. To witness the first chapters of disassembly and division in the Middle East, and the subsequent loss Arab regimes, Khjarh domino, and the intervention of other Arab countries, as has been mentioned above.
If we are to shed more light on other Arab countries, it is not difficult to note that the Middle East is facing the threat of fragmentation and division Under federal and decentralized slogans, because of sectarian, tribal and ethnic divisions, with the attack on the incident Arabism, opponents of religious slogans Alekianah and projects that invoke the rights of religious or sectarian or ethnic minorities to have private entities.