A large variation in the estimation of oil prices for the coming months

12/21/2015 0:00

Baghdad Joseph Zayer

Most specialists affairs oil these days is interested in reading a careful and comprehensive for the various analyzes of the reality of the oil market and the effects of falling oil prices.

With trading ideas on avoiding these challenges for the States rentier oil and the size of the threat that put pressure on their economies, gathering most of the expectations on the continued decline in oil prices Crude for the foreseeable future.

Has Goldman Sachs issued a forecast that the oil price will be further reduced in the coming period, where indicated that it expects that the oil does not bring any stability before reaching the level of $ 20 per barrel, and was based on «Sachs» on this expectations after OPEC recently announced that it would keep production on what it is about the level of 30 million barrels per day ceiling.

While Boone Pickens differs CEO of BP »Capital» with «Sachs» where access price to $ 70 expected in the months

She stressed Sachs that the price of oil will only at levels around the $ 20, as the drop in oil prices to levels below that will carry the exploration companies in the world heavy losses may not tolerable, where they will start in the face of losses also even without counting the cost of transportation and distribution.

Also expects Goldman Sachs that OPEC will pump crude to reach 32 million barrels per day, and this is above the agreed limit, but within the expectations that Iran return to the production of new to share after the end of US sanctions on Iran during the few months to come.

Also, the surge in oil stocks for many countries of the world and in the United States will be pushing influential to increase pressure on the price of oil.

In the opinion expert in natural resources that the reports issued by institutions that deal directly or indirectly in the oil market, including the «OPEC» and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested increase supply of oil.

The Fouad Qassem Prince cited in his study published in the month of November last, for example, the policies included in the report of the International Energy Agency «The recent our budget shows us that there is an offer plus (glut) of oil exists in the global markets, is very high and the amount of three million barrels Daily »He added Prince: According to our estimates, the accounts (IEA) this on« satiety »Current, although it is very high, but they are optimistic, and in fact may be inaccurate for the lack of information and assumptions« unrealistic »

For the reasons below:

I've referee IEA report Surplus (satiety) in international markets increased by 3 million barrels per day in August 2015, depending on OPEC pumping rates of the last three months prior to writing the report, which rates May and June and July 2015 also assumed that OPEC pumping rate in this manner continues (ie 31, 7 million barrels per day) until the end of 2016. But «the real situation» is not

Shows the Prince and his point of view, saying: As we expected, the pumping of Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government has not taken into account in the IEA estimates.

And that the information sent and announced by Iraq on the export of whether to OPEC or to international organizations, it is what comes out of the Iraqi oil marketing company «Sumo» which is responsible for the federal export, and these figures do not include territory outside the Muslim issued by him to the Federal Government (SOMO). In addition, the export of the federal government from the south in a continuous increase every month.

He adds Prince:

The increase of the export of the southern fields and Central will continue growing, in 2016 and beyond to 2020, as well as that taken into account for the North Oil (whether Kirkuk oil fields or fields in the region), is the only Muslim oil by the province to the federal government , amounting to 415 thousand barrels per day in the month of May, and 165 thousand barrels per day in June, while the region's exports «official», the so-called independent oil These figures may greatly exceeded and reached more than 550 thousand barrels per day June and July 2015, also reached to 650 thousand barrels per day in August and September, in addition to that there are approximately 50 thousand other barrels a day, called «internal sales» smuggled mostly to the outside are not within the IEA forecasts, as the what issued by the Government of the Territory unspoken and non-transparent, does not find it in the global statistics on supply and demand.