The balance between the deficit and conditions of the International Monetary Fund

11/26/2015 0:00

Abdul Zahra Mohammed Hindawi

Seems that if the 2016 budget is no better than its predecessors, if not much worse, which may cause a delay approval by the House of Representatives .. there are multiple streams buffeted with left and right, perhaps in the forefront of these intense currents oil set for the production and ceilings, which were built prices the budget .. Despite the assurances of the Ministry of Oil that the production volume will exceed the barrier of four million barrels per day in the beginning of next year, but that a lot of the vote strongly emphasizes that Iraq is unable to reach the ceiling that was specified which 3.6 million barrels a day.

Add to so that the price speculative set at $ 45 a barrel some see as excessive in light of a global glut of oil could lead to a further decline in prices .. Adding to the budget forestry situation, the difficult conditions set by the International Monetary Fund in exchange for giving Iraq a loan of two billion dollars in as part of the government's efforts to bridge the budget deficit .. and forestry here two-dimensional., the government responded to the terms of the fund, they will fall in big trouble, because those conditions demanding the lifting of subsidies on electricity, ration card and re-examine the operational aspect and specifically money that goes for salaries, which represent the bulk size of the budget ..

All these measures taken by the government there is no doubt it will face a lot of popular rejection and even at the level of parliament, we started to hear a lot of voices that refuse to conduct such financial reforms .. and we are not far from boiling witnessed in the Iraqi street, when the government decided to reconsider salaries and provisions in order to reduce public spending. Those protests prompted the government to reconsider the decision and decided not to prejudice the allotments, but the nominal salary just is covered by the change to increase or decrease.

Therefore, it is expected that the country is witnessing a wave of anger if they decide to raise or reduce the subsidies on electricity, ration card with a a state of lawlessness and the difficulty of controlling the prices in the markets, because the truth is that despite the meager ration card and spacing intervals distributed, but it still represents a balancing factor in the Iraqi market and affect almost clear in the stability of the market and hence the rise in prices by about uncontrolled will lead the lead to re-inflation indices to rise at high rates because the food section affects Balambeshr in monthly and annual inflation rate because it reflects the amount needed and daily consumption of the Iraqi people .. but if the government decided to dispense with two billion International Monetary Fund, it can not address the deficit in the expected budget that ranges between 20 -23 trillion dinars without the loan, with the loan application and the requirements referred to, it may fall to 14 Trliuna ..

That is why the budget in this context, both the two options in front of a lot of bitterness ..otzdad bitterness intensity with a number of provinces claim its share of the petro-dollar a $ 5 for every barrel of production or refinement .. and did not get Petrodolarha they threaten to resort to selling its oil on their own, similar to what he does the Kurdistan region .. The mention of the region, the oil deal with Baghdad is the other exhibition to collapse for lack of commitment to the region is required to be exported across the quantities Center.

With these data look the budget in front of formidable challenges can not be overcome except by searching for other sources of funding as well as oil, such as taxes and promote tourism and benefit in any way from the strategic balance of the Central Bank .
with a hope seems strong and logically the ability to the production of more than 4 million barrels per day over the next year .
There is no doubt that there are other solutions which can be used if Anamna thinking and closer look at the reality.