Moody's expects the growth of Iraq's economy by 8% in 4 years 9/21
Credit rating agency expects the growth of Iraq's economy by 8% in 4 years Monday, 21 September 2015 14:27
Shafaq News / Moody's credit rating predicted, Iraq's oil production to increase at a rate of 10% annually to reach about 5 million barrels a day by 2019, in conjunction with the non-oil growth
from 2016 recovery onwards, and this will help to raise real GDP growth rate to about 8% a year between 2016 and 2019.
Moody's said in a statement, seen by Shafaq News, on Monday, that the Iraqi economy suffers from a lack of diversification, where oil accounts for 50% of GDP, nearly 100% of exports, as the public sector dominated the non-oil sector, and manufacturing construction formed only 10% of GDP in 2014.
In 2014, GDP in Iraq fell by 2.1%, driven by a sharp contraction in the non-oil growth, while oil production has continued to grow by about 4.5%.
Iraq’s revenue was damaged because of lower oil prices since mid-2014, where oil accounts for about 90% of total revenue.
Moody's expects that the Iraq government revenues fall by 35% in 2015, compared with 2014, bringing the budget deficit to 18% of GDP.
Despite the growth of oil exports in Iraq, probably in 2016, the fiscal deficit will remain at about 15% of GDP, according to a Moody's statement.
According to Moody's, financing this deficit may raise the government's debt ratio to about 79% of GDP by the end of 2016.
Moody's expects that a declining ratio of government debt to Iraq at a later time, to less than 70% of GDP in 2019, thanks to high oil prices and production, however, government revenues will continue to be vulnerable to oil price fluctuations.
According to statistical review issued by BBC Worldwide for the energy situation in the world in 2015, Iraq's confirmed oil reserves stood at 150 billion barrels in 2014, occupies the fifth place in the world, accounting for 8.8% of the world's proven reserves.
Moody's said, they were given temporary rated bonds issued by government decided in dollars (Caa1), which means a high degree of risk, and a stable future.
Iraq plans to issue international bonds by about $ 6 billion, for the first time in 9 years, to finance the budget deficit, due to falling oil prices and the war against ISIS.