Report: war and the Iraqi economy. Problems and crises 9/19
2015/09/19 (00:23 pm) - hits: 121 - number (3460)
Report: war and the Iraqi economy. Problems and crises
Iraq's economy is one of the factors contributing to the Division of the country and encourage violence, leading to civil war and help empower daash. Sectarian divisions and ethnic, demographic pressure, religious extremism, foreign countries, weak governance corrupt, despotic, political system shattered all contributed to the current level of violence in a failed State for a long time.
It is possible to provide an overview of the complex entanglements between the economy and the rest of the factors fuelling violence in Iraq, and the extent to which structural economic problems in Iraq with sectarian and ethnic divisions are helps promote daash and increases tensions between Arabs and Kurds. The study begins by emphasizing the importance of focusing on the reasons why Iraq today faces the levels of violence and internal tensions which drive him to split, and focus on the differences between the economy of terrorism and counterinsurgency and conventional econometric. The study does not claim that the economy had contributed to the violence and problems more than other reasons, but there are some important links between problems in the Iraqi economy and governance, population pressure, and levels of violence in another failed States in the Middle East, such as Syria, Libya and Yemen. As is also apparent from an analysis of the Iraqi economy with ideology and politics major causes of violence in Iraq, the country faces unusual challenges is the high percentage of young women and men desperate from the future and jobs and marriage. And that the country's economy and its policies and social tensions which will suffer from severe population pressure over at least two decades. As the economy was subjected to mutilation for several reasons including bad governance in the country is dominated by the public sector, and the Government was forced to buy popular support through assignments and subsidies, and the cost of war, corruption and excessive occupying Iraq ranked 170 of 175 among the most corrupt countries by transparency international, and has a very large public sector management where bad Bank places ranked 156 185 among the worst countries in ease of doing business. As Iraq's economy frameworks in part through being in a State of war or war-related crises since 1980, and was the last conflict cumulative economic impact caused to restrict the development of the country, dividing economy and income on sectarian and ethnic lines, creating vast areas caused violence and Economics divisions.
The study is following the patterns of violence in detail since the us-led invasion in 2003, which represents only the last stage in history included civil war between the Central Government and the Kurds in the 1970s and the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, and the invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf war in 1990 and 1991, and the impact of UN sanctions from 1990 to 2003. One of the chapters of the study follow the size breakdown of the Iraqi military forces in 2003, and the economic impact of fighting since 2003, and recovery patterns of Iraqi forces before the attack daash late 2013. This chapter shows the economic burden of reviving the Iraqi forces and to pay the costs of the current fighting, as the Central Government has not so far achieved progress in reviving its military forces. And chapter also continues a pattern of violence and internal divisions between Arabs and Kurds and Sunnis and Shias, and shows the influence of daash is only part of a larger pattern of violence and divisions that have affected a large proportion of the country's population. Also, the ethnic and sectarian tensions and fighting caused the Division of the country's population to the economics of urban and regional subsidiary, resulting in problems and injustice compounded the difficulty of achieving national unity, security and stability.
It is clear from the study that some battles with daash had aggravated the problems faced by Arabs and Kurds in their agreement on the size and funding and the nature of the Kurdish region in the future. At the same time, the emergence of various militias and ethnic and sectarian forces have aggravated the problem of participation and political power and oil revenues among Sunnis and Shiites.
Then consider study beyond economics to examine the deep structural problems in the economy of Iraq and which does not engender violence and hostilities but surely increase divisions and tensions, and these include:
-Economy of oil wealth created your unique "Dutch disease" where American intelligence agency reported that Iraq receives 90% of government revenue and 80% of revenues from exports of oil sector.
-The Government has a long history of mismanagement of balancing generate unrealistic plans too ambitious and a failure in implementation of budget shares due to loss of money due to corruption and waste, and this will become a bigger problem in the near term due to lower revenues from oil exports, and financing the growing deficit are non-reliable.
-Huge employment crisis and ongoing source of young generation, not to create jobs for them, and heavy reliance on non-productive employment in the Government sector, and the imbalance between the level of employment and share of gross domestic product.
-Youth unemployment exceeds 25%. Agriculture contributes to 3.3% of GDP, but the ratio of 21.6% of the labour force. Either industry (largely oil) accounted for 56.6% of domestic production but non-productive industries comprising 21.6% of the labour force.
-Growing State-owned corporate sector widely so that puts a huge burden on the economy because of weak productivity in the public sector provides 43% of total employment and about 60% of the total full-time employment, where workers at State companies, some 20% of total employment in the public sector in order to produce a little worthless.
-There are a lot of challenges facing the economic and social infrastructure — mostly relates to war — in the sectors of energy, water, finance and banking, education, food, medicine, agriculture and others.
It is not possible to determine many aspects of Iraq's current economic problems, but obviously the war further aggravated as they play a major role in the Division of the country, and that defeat daash will not end the divisions and the pattern of violence in Iraq without more government action and reform efforts than planned so far. The reforms announced by Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abbadi will not have much impact at best, so far at least, and perhaps the Iraqi Government itself threat threat daash.
From: strategic and international study centre