Mkgrk and Soleimani .. Iraq between two wills

August 26, 2015

Always saw the research and academic communities after the occupation of Iraq, a debate about the most influential country in the course of the situation, a debate has extended to a large area of ​​Arab and foreign researchers, There were many opinions are dealing among them the view that the country is witnessing an Iranian domination almost entirely, to become a follower of Iraq with Tehran, and among those who believe that the United States still have a significant role, despite the erosion of its position in Iraqi politics, its effects increased with the emergence of the international coalition
Against the "Islamic state".

It would be optimistic to believe that the United States is able to reduce Iranian influence on the government in Baghdad, and the substitution was replaced in the conduct of the political process, and can be measured by the weakness of Washington in the Iraqi political scene through several variables are:

- Sectarian identity formed the basis of political organization after 2003, and became Shiite Islam is the most presence in the political equation, and the most prominent medium of political expression. In the same sense, it can not ignore the sectarian perspective central role in the social, political and security life. Thus, the Iraqi today ranks among the sectarian identity that allows him to be a citizen of the first class, represented by the Shiite government that was exploited by not care about it in terms of providing services to him, and wasted the country's wealth for the benefit of parties and movements and to follow, or be a second-class citizen, the price of survival alive requires him to remain silent and not to object, though it is exposed to forms of retaliation, humiliation and displacement.

-oma Notes, the absence of aversion and conscientious, which was shown by the year just for the expression of sectarian identity in the public discourse, which saw the past years to ease gradually shown by year to show this aversion, and grasp the reality of division experienced by the community, which contributes to authorities, political and religious to keep him employed in order to ensure their interests. There is no doubt that Iran's support for Shiite militias, which were killing Sunnis and US forces fighting in the years of occupation, has contributed to raising the sectarian conflict, paving the way for the growing lack of confidence between the two sides. There is no denying that year were victims of political marginalization and even in the social system, which is dominated by Shiites.

- It was not creative chaos outputs, which said by Condoleezza Rice, former US Secretary of State for the consolidation of democracy through the use of military intervention policy that brought down former Iraqi regime, but successive governments divided up control of the state institutions and governmental bodies and independent between the system of followers and loyalties of each party depending on the element loyalty without competence and experience, as well as wasting hundreds of billions of dollars in recent years through corruption and failed projects and delusional.

- Eastward toward Asia rotation strategy by the Obama administration began to apply them, and strong "national economic adjustment" at home and cut the US wars commitments abroad and re-installation of the American system of globalization, in order to serve two goals simultaneously: to contain the rise of China and to continue to assert US leadership on the world. In other words, what is witnessed in the Middle East is going in opposite directions: first, declining US interest in getting involved in the region, and the second: competitors attempt to raise regional and international challenges to the United States in the Middle East to reduce their ability to move outside this area.

-ashmt Obama administration is hesitant about the Syrian Revolution, in the consecration of the contradictions of the Arab regional environment, in terms of the formation of axes intersected the countries in the region between supporters of the Assad government, and a supporter of the armed opposition. Iraq to be in a row the supporting wing of Damascus, but that the task loop connecting the system, which supplies military and logistical and financial support, which is not offset by deterring US about this behavior Baghdad. Add to that the US inaction in the face of exclusionary policy of the al-Maliki about a year, then the rise of the "Islamic state", has increased in the worsening sectarian situation.

-tsaad The Iranian role in Iraq, he has warned David Petraeus, the US Central Command of the Armed Forces, the commander of the former, the former CIA director, in an interview with "The Washington Post" on 20 March / March year this saying that the central threat to the stability of long-term for Iraq and the entire region is not It is "an Islamic state but the Shiite militias that are many of them support or directed by Iran." That Washington did nothing about al-Maliki practices have enabled armed groups, such as the "League of the Righteous," and "Hezbollah Brigades" of targeting his opponents, including allowing its members to wear military uniforms to disguise their activities.

-gaab See US strategy on how to deal with Iraq, it demonstrated clear during the fall of Mosul, however, of the "Islamic State" in June 2014 when he was allowed to Qassem Soleimani, commander of the "Qods Force", conflict management in almost completely in private, with limited US role, who suffered weakness and confusion that led to the strengthening of the role of the "popular crowd militias."

According to the sources of intelligence, the break the siege of the city of Amerli done by 1,500 from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces (Kay Ramadan decision) near Qadir Karam area, which is located in Tuz spend in the northeast of Iraq and keep track of Salahuddin province, receiving the support of 4,000 of militias "popular crowd". It is interesting that there is a state of coordination between Tehran and Washington, about how to restore the city, as the US "Eldonz" aircraft determining the coordinates of the presence of elements of the "Islamic state" to the Revolutionary Guard. Perhaps American recognition clear to Iran a regional superpower and a strategic partner in Iraq.

Iranian military -altoagd which has become public, in a statement to the commander of Iranian ground forces, which he talked about the elements of monitoring and survey of the Iranian Army entered Iraq in coordination with the Iraqi government, in addition to talking about the flight of Iranian helicopters over regulated "Islamic state" Iraqi areas, according to the website Oryx US military has been monitoring the tanks and Iranian rockets destined to Tikrit, during the battle waged by "popular crowd" militias to expel the organization there.

On the other hand, the Israeli site "Deepak" said that Iranian forces are protecting the Iraqi capital from the west and east, and prevent progress "Islamic state" forces to the south toward the main Shiite cities. And that these forces made up of soldiers from the "Basij", a semi-military organization composed of volunteers Iranians, as well as Iraq's Shiite militias represented by "Hezbollah Brigades".

And lead these forces Abu Mahdi Mohandes, a deputy chairman of the "popular crowd" associated with the Iraqi Council of Ministers, which includes tens of thousands of Shiite militia fighters forces, which is considered the right hand of Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Also pointed out, "Deepak" to the Engineer required to cadas Kuwait and the US and the Police International (Interpol), is today the role of the link between Gen. Soleimani, and the leaders of the US troops stationed in Baghdad, where Iranian forces have to get US approval for an attack on targets and sites affiliated "Islamic state . "

Served as Iran to expand economic and trade relations with Iraq; which imports 72% of the total local Iranian goods, also ranks first trade partner of Iran, with total bilateral trade amounted to up to $ 18 billion in 2015, while the value of exports of non-oil commodities, which issued by Tehran to Iraq amounting to six billion dollars a year, and that "80% of the technical and engineering services in Iraq carried out by Iranian companies, and the value of those services amounting to $ 4.2 billion, and that the Iraqi market is one of the markets to Iran, because it is a strong business market, and depend on what It issued its goods and food products.

-tejrebh Shiite rule during the three fifteen years reveal a catastrophic failure at the level of management and governance, to crumble with the traditions of administrative work made available by the Iraqi state since its inception in 1921, in addition to repression policies that hamper any radical changes in the process of governance. It complemented hidden between the Shiite religious authorities in Najaf, and conflict, and what it could mean the spread of the principle of velayat-e faqih among Iraq's Shiites, five Fatawa level.

Mkgrk and Soleimani ..aehma the most power?

As an expression of the weakness of the US influence in Iraq, who are competing today for two players keen to safeguard the interests of their countries, Brit Mkgrk US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq, Iran and Syria, a specialist in the affairs of Iraq and work in the Obama administrations, which is known for his extreme bias to Nuri al-Maliki's policies, but it was said at a certain moment he was adviser to the Dawa Party. His candidacy for the post of US ambassador to Iraq in 03/26/2012 was opposed by Iraqi political parties, and political parties in the US Congress. In this regard, he said Ramzi Mardini, a research analyst at the Institute for the Study of War that the objections to the nomination Mkgrk is based on the proximity to al-Maliki and the fact that he has no experience in the largest operation of the Embassy of the United States in the world.

The second person is the leader of "Qods Force" of the Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Qasim Slimani, man shadow that moves Mtuarea for Alanzar, leading the military operations against the "Islamic state" and imposes the visions of his government on the decision-maker Iraqi, and follow his instructions strictly on the Shiite alliance level, backed militias loyal to Iran.

Visits of the two men has coincided recently to Baghdad and Arbel, to resolve the mandate of President Massoud Barzani, which ended in the 20th of the month of August / August current, without so far leading to tangible results.

The Mkgrk, at the head of a high-level US delegation that included the US ambassador in Iraq, Stuart Jones, and Consul General US in Arbil Matthias Mettmann, to the city of Sulaimaniya to meet the leadership of the two parties of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the change (Curran) to discuss the ongoing political crisis concerning the presidency of the region has been the transfer of an official statement from the US delegation, his emphasis on the need for "consensus to solve national and national issues", once again strengthen the "American support for the Peshmerga forces of Kurdistan."

Almost Soleimani important similarity that came for him Mkgrk to Iraq, as it met the commander of the "Qods Force" President Massoud Barzani, and the Prime Minister of the region Nechirvan, and the leaders of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of them party Rasool and Barham Saleh and Hiro Ahmed Ibrahim, and coordinator of the Movement for Change Nushirwan Mustafa, stressing support the survival of Massoud Barzani, president of the province, that gives up some of his powers.

This means that Tehran do its utmost to exploit the opportunity, to limit the powers of Barzani in return for retaining by the heads of the region, and weaken its role in promoting Kurdish separatism project, which Tehran sees a source of concern for its interests in Iraq. In the same sense the desired Iranian President Barzani is weak to the extent that it needs to ensure the survival of the Iranian role.

Many analysts and goes on to say that the power equation, which is available on the two men, but tend to interest Soleimani "the most powerful man in Iraq", as described by Muqtada al-Sadr, while facing movements Mkgrk of no confidence at the level of Shiite politicians. Both are today seeking to renew the mandate of President Barzani, and the varied Mqarepettehma, share a Kurdish divide, which would undermine the fight "Daash efforts fears."

Some observers is likely to be 2015 suitable for testing a new relationship for the inside Baforeig, as assume that the focus together may form on the impact of bias Washington and Tehran to Albarzana, and this axis running strong negotiations replete with "intensity" stick to a message that time is running out in front of Alakrad, and management Altnaqdhat, Baltuaq, require work and that "the Kurdish internally coherent deal" that will shape the fight against terrorism Options this time. They go to the extent of saying that Obad, Soleimani, claimed negotiates with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan language of coercion, what alarmed Find in Sulaymaniyah.

On the other hand, the Mkgrk stresses the subject of arming the families of the provinces under the control of the "Islamic state", and calls for a genuine national reconciliation among all Iraqi sects and to persuade the Iraqi government of failing to stand up against these files.

On the opposite, Soleimani moves deduced from arming Sunni tribal operations, it leads "militias popular crowd" that the fight against the "Islamic state" will not accept any point of arming the crowd outside the government forces. Under the pretext of fear of becoming anti-government military force in Baghdad in the future, or on the pretext that some of these tribes may have infiltrated "Daash" although it supports the Iraqi army for years.

Given Tehran because of its influence in Iraq, it is doubtful that Tehran accept a US diplomat, it can open the door in front of the Shiites of Iraq to be free from large about the Iranian tutelage, and restore balance to the political process that was marred by marginalization and exclusion. He played a leading role in facilitating the formation of a government Haider al-Abadi, and the disqualification of former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a man of Iran, who served for the past eight years.

Soleimani will not hesitate to block Mkgrk efforts, and last movements seeking to bridge the gap in views between the Iraqis will not succeed, the former believes that partners most of the year for "Islamic state" can not be the government pagoda that you trust. Iran and Iraq that its grip on the console, is not prepared to take the risk that never lose its influence there, but it will not be quite the empowerment of Shiites and Sunnis final exclusion from power in Iraq.

Soleimani, plays and maneuvering relying on the "same length", and the control of the ruling Shi'ite Islam in Baghdad, while the other moves without the maneuver and not able to bring about change that you want, and Washington.