If one ratchets down from global to regional to Iraq, the ALMOST-legally binding HCL issue makes regrettable sense.
The current Western financial system lives off of the full faith and promise of the Petro Dollar (USD). With what is going on globally with the AIIB and other alternatives to the Petro Dollar, it would appear that how Iraq comes out onto the world stage is pivotal to the viability of the USD/Petro Dollar.
VP Biden, as he often does, blurted out a few years back that the PLAN for Iraq was a three-country landscape, not one --- Sunni, Shia and Kurds all neatly partitioned via tribal lines. Historically, the Kurds have been treated like Euro gypsies, almost like dalits that Turkey, the old Baghdad and Iran all wish would go away. And all have tried their best to eliminate the Kurds from the face of the earth.
If the Kurds would sign any and all dotted lines to peg the sale of THEIR oil in USD (vs SDRs), that gives great promise to the perpetual maintenance of the USD, and allows what the Kurds have always wanted, a sovereign Kurdistan...with a seat at the UN.
If Kurdistan was my objective, I would not sign the HCL, or any sharing mechanism; unless there are provisos in the amendments that qualify the on-going viability of the Agreement. Amendments that specify a time-line, allowing the Kurds to move out of the HCL. Are the Kurds any less viable as an individual sovereign than Baghdad? Was Pakistan?
What does this do to our investment? If the Kurds pull a Pakistan, will they simply continue doing business in USDs until they create their own currency? What happens to the CBI influence there? What happens to the value of the IQD? These issues are obviously on the table, but not discussed publically. No doubt, this is high-stakes tribal negotiations at the time-frame of hands-being-called. The Kurds are going to do what is best for them, long term. They have legitimate trust issues with all parties.
In the central bank fiat money meme, the treasury issues bonds that the central bank writes a check for, then sells the bonds to the subscribing banks, who in turn resell to the world as a registered sovereign asset. Iraq is on the threshold of ginning up this system. It is all based on faith that all parties must play their part. Whether it is Allah or Yahweh who holds sway over all of this, we are praying right along with them for Thy will to be done.