Iíve been a member here in Dinarupdates since last December, and finally decided to make my first major post.
Hereís my opinion. Iíve been in this Forex investment for 3 years. Iíve saved hundreds of Middle East articles on my website and followed Shabibi til the day he was ousted. Iíve read between the lines and spent many days meditating on this IQD situation. One of the things I was impressed with was that Dr. Shabibi was a man of integrity. He wasnít your typical political lying scumbag guy like many over there in Iraq. So with that being said, I want to highlight three reasons why I honestly believe the dinar will RV at 1.16 and stay there for 2 or 3 years.
The first question I want you to think about is this. Why did Dr. Shabibi only lower the dinarís value to 1166 from 1170? They talked about the dinar going to 1000 to 1 and they talked about their old legacy rate of 3.22 also. Then, if you look at the website page on the Ministry of Planning hereís what it says.
Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for (not (sic))less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports... etc.
Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.
Iraq needs 3 things, they need to De-dollarize, create long term stability, and get their dinar back with minimal pay out. At that rate they can do it.
The ministry of planning website highlights 2 rates, the 3.20 and the 1.134. I believe Shabibi lowered the dinar to 1166 from 1170 so that he could just drop three digits, move the decimal point over 3 spaces and that would allow the Iraqi public to easily adjust to the new rate. Again, Shabibi had lots of choices to move the dinar to, but he chose 1166. Remember, many people in Iraq because of societal limitations, are under educated, especially the oneís who do most of the shopping. Iraq printed denominations similar to the United States values. If they make the dinar worth close to the actual vale of the bills, it will be easy for even the simplest minded to deal with the purchasing value.
De-dollarization, At this rate, De-dollarization is possible. All Abadi has to do is prove to the public that rate is stable and wonít move. That would make most Iraqiís want to use the dinar and dump the dollar.
Stability, at this rate, because of the feasibility studies done, Iraq can be assured that they can maintain the 1.16 no matter what the price of oil fluctuates to up or down. After 2 or 3 years they can go to a high rate. Remember, they have stayed at 1166 for years even though they knew the dinar was worth more.
Minimal payout, if they hold the value at 1.16 for 2 or 3 years, after 90 days when speculators finally realize it isnít going to move and if they publicize this fact. Most will not want to hold their dinar for another 3 years and they will simply accept that they can only cash in at 1.16.
Guesstimating about the countries who hold vast amounts, ie. (IF) say the USA had trillions, and they were gathering our dinar as has been estimated, they could still pay down the national debt, (provided theyíre smart enough) and still have oil money left over if the rumors are correct about cheap oil at say 35 bucks a barrel.
Please feel free to comment!
Last edited by smoothjazzm1; 10-08-2014 at 07:31 AM.