It is EVICT MALIKI DAY + TWENTY - THREE (23) or " E - M DAY + 23 ".
The Iraq Elections Result: Maliki’s Complicated Win
by Reidar Visser
The uncertified result of Iraq’s parliamentary elections, released by the election commission today, cannot be described as anything other than a victory for the incumbent prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki.
The question now, however, is what Maliki can do with this impressive victory.
" ...... the election result will be submitted for legal certification. In 2010, that process lasted more than 2 months, significantly delaying the process of government formation. Symptomatically, ISCI has already signaled that it may challenge the counting of the votes ........... "
" ..... despite the superiority of Maliki’s electoral coalition, the competing Shiite forces, the Kurds and the Sunnis, are together able to form a comfortable majority to prevent Maliki from remaining in office. "......................
Maliki likely fears that if he rushes to do business with parties outside the Shiite alliance, his Shiite rivals would do the same and that they may have a better chance to win over the Kurdish and Sunni forces, because there is a general consensus among them to not keep Maliki in power.
At the same time, the rest of the Shiite groups fear that this consensus is not solid enough to withstand discussing the details, and that going alone to the Kurdish and Sunni forces may put them in a weak bargaining position and make them appear responsible for breaking Shiite unity.
An important factor here are the choices that the Sunni and Kurdish forces will make. If the Sunnis and Kurds rush to form ethnic and sectarian alliances, then the Shiite alliance may do the same.
Some are proposing scenarios such as replacing Maliki with another figure from the State of Law Coalition as a compromise to ensure the continuation of the Shiite alliance. Yet, such a solution may come at a later stage, after the favored options by most parties have been exhausted. What is certain now is that a harsh negotiating season will begin as the conflict moves from its electoral aspect into the closed negotiating rooms and deals among the elite.
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