The Kurdish Muscle in Post-Election Iraq
By Yerevan Saeed
The presidency can be exchanged for something more important to the Kurds, the Defense or Finance Ministry, for instance.
Initial results of the Iraqi parliamentary polls show that no party, list or alliance is likely to win enough votes to dictate how the next government should be formed. This means the country’s Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds will have to brace themselves for long negotiations, political squabble and backroom deals.
In light of this reality, Kurdish leaders and their parliamentarians who are to head to Baghdad soon, should make the Kurdistan Region’s right to produce, export and sell oil the main precondition in any future political deal or alliance.
First though, Kurdish groups, with help from Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani, whose Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) appears the strongest on the local and national level, have to form a united front at home and in Baghdad in order to have a say in the Iraqi capital.
Early results show that the Kurds may win 58 seats in the Iraqi parliament, around the same number of seats (57) they won four years ago.
In their own territory the Kurds have shown some serious signs of division in the past few months. Despite six months of talks since the September 21 regional parliamentary elections, Erbil still doesn’t have a government.
Unless the five major Kurdish parties gather under one umbrella and form a strong bloc, they will easily fall victim to Nuri Maliki or any new prime minister who will happily exploit a Kurdish division.
Within the Kurdistan Region, each of the PUK, the KDP, the Change Movement (Gorran), Islamic Union (Yekgirtu) and the Islamic League (Komal) has their strength and weaknesses. But if they unite against Baghdad, they are a force to be reckoned with.
Iraq’s presidency which has been held by the Kurds for ten years must not be a major point in future negotiations. For the Kurds, that post seems to have run its course, especially since Jalal Talabani, the PUK leader who often acted as a pacifying figure, is no longer there to play that role.
The post can be exchanged for something more important to the Kurds, the Defense or Finance Ministry, for instance.
The Kurds will also be wise to retain the Foreign Ministry that has been held by Hoshyar Zebari for a number of years. In the past two years alone more than 20 foreign countries have opened consulates in Erbil, which would have been impossible in Iraq’s intricate bureaucracy if not for the foreign ministry’s quick green lights.
Baghdad isn’t in an enviable position right now. Corruption is rife, people grieve over lack of services, and most importantly Sunni insurgents are back full force. Under Maliki, Iraq has lost control of many towns and cities, especially in Anbar.
The residents of Anbar, Mosul and Salahaddin are angry with Maliki and possibly with any future Shiite government. This would only offer the Kurds another ally in Baghdad. With the security situation worsening in the center and west of the country, Baghdad couldn’t afford to antagonize the Kurds, unless it wants to push them towards independence.
The Iraqi prime minister has already spoken of forming a majority government ‘for a better performance’, something he can do in coalition with, for example, the Arabia bloc of Salih Mutlaq who has enjoyed good relations with Maliki. But in practice, cutting off the Kurds would give credence to their idea of independence as there won't be any point in Kurdish MPs going to Baghdad.
Preliminary results of the Iraqi elections announced by organizations monitoring the elections, the coalition of "state law" led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki won 67 seats, while the coalition of the "state of the citizen," led by Ammar al-Hakim on 48 seats, also got his ally "conglomerate Liberal" Council of the Sadrist movement Bakoaúmh three 33 seats, making the alliance, "Sadr al-Hakim" gets a majority within the National Alliance Shiite by 80 seats, compared to 67 seats "for the rule of law."
The final results showed that the initial "Kurdistan Democratic Party" and its allies won 20 seats and the "PUK" on 14 seats, was awarded the "Movement for Change" Kurdish (Curran) 15 seats.
As the coalition of "Uniting for Reform" led by Parliament Speaker Osama Najafi 33 seats and the "national list" led by Iyad Allawi won 25 seats, while the "Reform Movement" led by Ibrahim al-Jaafari on 10 seats and the "Arab List" led by Saleh al-Mutlaq on 10 seats and "Civil Democratic Alliance" and 10 seats, "the Virtue Party" 7 seats.
Maliki and Hakim claim victory .. The prime minister refuses «consensual democracy»
Fri May 02 2014 02:25 | (Voice of Iraq)
Starting with the initial sorting the votes of Iraqis, expressed the major political blocs welcomed the participation of Iraqis by 60 per cent, despite the security risks. At the same time, each party began work on a war in an advanced position, in preparation for negotiations on elections, led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, head of the Islamic Supreme Council Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.
He said al-Maliki told reporters yesterday: «issued statements responsible in the world that what happened in Iraq teased impressive, and evidence of courage», rejecting reports of irregularities, saying it «limited». He added: «We have paid the price dearly disable projects, but we paid for the blood .. I tell them: Let us, at least from now until the formation of the next government. Let's move on. You must open a new page ». He denied that seeks personally to stay in power, saying that it was his duty to continue the service if requested to do so the coalition, adding: «I can not just sit back and let down the people».
And cross-Maliki expressed confidence in his ability to form a majority government policy, yesterday, saying: «We have confidence that we can achieve in the political majority (...) if not quotas nor consensual democracy (...) we are able to achieve more than 165 seats» , between the seats of the parliament's 328.
He said in this regard: «I warn of a return to quotas, I will not be part of it».
When asked about the time it would take to form a new government replied that it depends on the negotiations with the other groups. He expressed the hope that is being done as soon as possible, but expressed fears that it will take months.
Maliki's allies say they believe that he won more than 90 seats, which will allow him to dictate terms to the _khasmah presidents; ISCI and the movement of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
The statements of the leaders competed Shi'ite blocs, Maliki «rule of law», and Ammar al-Hakim «citizen», anticipating the results and talk format victor in parliamentary elections. Maliki said in his first press conference after the end of the parliamentary elections, yesterday, said that «What distinguishes this election and before the provincial elections is that it has the management, protection and planning and financing by the Iraqi government and the Electoral Commission for elections, was not on the ground, the Iraqi soldier and a strange one, It is said that even the Iraqis can not accomplish the elections, what were not there to protect and help from abroad ».
He spoke Maliki as the head of the next government, saying: «We want now after the completion of elections to start working and building», adding that «the country needs after that we got rid of the harassment of political to activate the mechanisms of democracy to achieve a majority government», calling «all ministers in the Iraqi government , who will announce their victory in the elections, to stop the phenomenon of disabled services, especially after the end of the election campaign », accusing« blocks that belongs to these ministers directing them ».
For his part, the President of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the citizen's «work as statesmen and responsibility away from selfishness and narcissism and self».
Hakim said in a speech published by the site «Firat News»'s Council, yesterday: «I recommend all the brothers and partners in faith and religion and the nation, that they are senior size of Iraq, and to work together as statesmen and men of the responsibility away from selfishness and narcissism and self», declaring «progress a coalition of citizens in most provinces », promising to« teamwork and proper planning », indicating that« Iraq will not give up its democratic experience and the methodology of freedom and peaceful transfer of power ».
They were both channel «Euphrates» of the wise and «prospects» of the owners had exchanged, the day before yesterday, the accusations, as she said «Euphrates» that «special forces that are part of the General Command of the Armed Forces (Maliki) entered the polling stations and expelled monitors entities Political », while received« prospects », saying that« the militia tried to provoke the voters in some polling stations, because of the loss of mass of the citizens in the elections ».
Denied Mary Rayes political advisor to the Prime Minister and candidate for state law, the charges, and said the «Middle East» that «militia were standing in front of some polling stations in Sadr City to provoke voters, who Astnjdoa forces security», pointing out that «the candidates on the mass of the citizen entered polling stations in Sadr City, and distributed propaganda superheroes electoral laws and regulations of the Electoral Commission for elections, the fact that their chances of winning a few ».
And crossed Rais for «B Ktltna for the conduct of the electoral process smoothly», noting that «there were fears of lack of voter turnout to the polling stations, but the percentage of voters increased from 70 per cent and special ballot 91 per cent, and this is the first time high in voters for these figures Since the first election after the regime change in 2003 ».
Rayes and was encouraged to «achieve our list and will enable us to a big win in alliance with other blocs to form a government of political majority, which included ministers from all Iraqi factions», stressing Maliki's nomination for a third term.
For his part, did not rule out Jawad al-Jubouri, a spokesman for the Liberal block of the Sadrist movement to be «special forces had already provoked voters in polling stations in Sadr City», pointing out that «news moved local residents talked about these provocations».
Jubouri said «Middle East» that «the elections took place well after we suspect turnout of voters because of the circumstances of the congestion security or has used the power of force in order to postpone the election date for the takeover of power, in addition to what really news about events (Daash) and the water war in Anbar », pointing out that« elections guaranteed by the Constitution to reflect the people's right to choose their representatives, the timing nor must take place, and this is what happened ».
And cross-Jubouri hoped events change «in order to get rid of the corrupt in power, and the provision of services to the Iraqi people», stressing that «Maliki will remain in office as prime minister». He said: «ruled out this possibility by virtue of non-approval of the National Alliance and the rest of the political blocs and the Kurds, he did not succeed in his mission as head of government».
And optimism, Iyad Allawi, head of a coalition of national accession to the Regulations on the good results in the parliamentary elections, which took place the day before yesterday, «despite the violations of the many, which took place in the areas of our public elections, such as Anbar and Nineveh, and the city of Adhamiya and dumping areas of eastern Baghdad», pointing out that we « Now we can not talk about the results, before the announcement by the Independent Electoral Commission ».
Allawi said in remarks «Middle East» that «our coalition National was more entities campaign that targeted before the elections, as was the exclusion of 38 of our candidates under various pretexts», expressed his happiness b «voter turnout at the polls in order to make the process of change required» .
Allawi added: «We will, in alliance with the brothers in the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Massoud Barzani, and the Sadrist movement, led by Moqtada al-Sadr, and other blocks to suit their national election with our software, to end the monopolization of power and building a state of civil institutions».
Baghdad (AIN) –Parliament Reporter, Mohamed al-Khalidi, denied holding a parliament session on Sunday to conduct second reading for Budget Law.
He stated to All Iraq News Agency "Without settling the disputes between the Central Government and the Kurdistani Regional Government over the Budget Law, parliament will not hold its session to endorse it."
Military: Can not list Maliki to form a majority government in the absence of partner
Military: Can not list Maliki to form a majority government in the absence of partners
Fri May 02 2014 12:42 | (Voice of Iraq)
Baghdad - where
Sami al-Askari said MP for the State of Law coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki not to the possibility of forming a majority government policy in the absence of the components of the Iraqi people.
The leader of the State of Law coalition of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has waged a campaign described by observers "Bacharsh" the political blocs during the campaign for Atilavh accused each other of trying to bring down the political process and supporting terrorism.
He said the military told all of Iraq [where] he "can not form a government in Iraq, absent the components of the Iraqi people, the main three, it can not exclude the Kurds or the year for a variety of government, but does that mean that all the menus of the Kurdish and Sunni must enter, such as what they were in previous governments, and the answer is no majority government in some lists of the three components agree to form a majority government, and the rest going to the opposition. "
He said the "majority government is formed through alliances, but these alliances do not include all the blocks, but the blocks include ready because some of them are consistent with the government's program and is working to make it work and this is the concept of majority government."
The military said that "the Government of the majority does not mean that Maliki's list to form the government alone, but means that the list of al-Maliki and other lists of the various components combine with it to form a majority government policy."
And future alliances between blocs MP said the state law that "talking about alliances premature and when the election results will appear intentions and preparations of the blocks in their desire alliance with any party."
He said al-Maliki told reporters after casting his vote last Wednesday at the Rashid Hotel in Baghdad that "the shape of the next government depends on the results of the elections," calling lists and blocs participating in the elections to "let go of past differences and the trend towards state-building process," adding that "the future alliances is not the red line with any party from the lists that win, but there are controls have been developed for those who accept to be our ally. "
He has renewed his call on more than one occasion during his election campaign that the next government will be of a political majority, but his call was met with criticism and reservations from different political blocs and described that it will not succeed and stressed the need for partnership in the next government.
Re: Military: Can not list Maliki to form a majority government in the absence of par
*** NOW WHAT ? ***
The countdown to election day is over. Will Maliki be evicted ? The coming days will be telling. First, we await the tabulation of votes, challenges and appeals must run their course, and then we should have a certification of the results and know which cluster received a plurality of the vote. Let the political maneuvering begin. Fasten your seat belt. It is EVICT MALIKI DAY + ONE (1) or " E - M DAY +2 ".
*** Following the last election the new parliament opened on 14 June 2010 following the election on March 7th. Iraq set a record for the longest period of time without a government which lasted for about ten (10) months. ***
After the conclusion of national elections, the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the CoR ( Council of Representatives / Parliament ) will vote for senior positions in the Iraqi government, including the President, the Prime Minister and his deputies, and the cabinet. Although each CoR ( Council of Representatives / Parliament ) member contributes an individual vote, in practice this voting occurs only after an agreement has been reached among the senior leaders of the political groups, invoking party loyalty and voting discipline thereafter. The selection of the cabinet requires an absolute majority of the CoR ( Council of Representatives / Parliament ) members’ votes (165 votes). In the final negotiations over government formation, even small groups can play a decisive role if they are able to provide the last few votes a governing coalition needs to clear this constitutional hurdle.
Re: Military: Can not list Maliki to form a majority government in the absence of par
Maliki alliances away for a third term
The governor of Nineveh and the leader of the coalition are united for reform Ethel Nujaifi , on Friday, the list appears united as the largest list of reform in the Arab Sunni carries responsibility " assembly powers " to coordinate with the National Alliance and Kurdistan .
Najafi 's brother called House Speaker to rely on the initial substrate is " excluded " Nuri al-Maliki as prime minister , stressing on finding " common vision " between the various forces to prevent the emergence of " new owners ."
Nujaifi said in a press statement : " Uniting for Reform calls all the winning lists in the Sunni areas of dialogue and unify positions commensurate with the aspirations of the masses of these areas."
Najafi said that the appearance of the list as the biggest reform of the united list in the Arab Sunni carried the responsibility of assembling forces in these provinces in order to achieve balance and coordination with the National Alliance and the Kurdistan Alliance .
Najafi explained : "We have ended the campaign and began the case accepted choice of the people and respect the results of elections and political action to achieve the aspirations of the masses that rose up to change ," he said, adding : "All the results and preparations and understandings with everyone relies on a substrate primary are excluded al-Maliki as prime minister ."
Najafi and continued in his statement : " But we know that this option is not enough and there must be a shared vision between the various forces of how to prevent the emergence of new owners ."
Re: Military: Can not list Maliki to form a majority government in the absence of par
Najafi reveals a united call for the alliance to prevent a third term for the owners
Political May 2, 2014
Number of readings: 318
Detection governor of Nineveh province on Friday for inviting mass united reform for all the winning lists in the Sunni areas of dialogue and unify positions commensurate with the aspirations of the masses of these areas, "said Nagiqi in a statement on its own in the social networking and quoted by the agency appointed Iraq News that" the emergence of the list are united for reform as the biggest List in the Arab Sunni carried the responsibility of assembling forces in these provinces in order to achieve balance and coordination with the National Alliance and the Kurdistan Alliance, "and added," We have ended yesterday, the campaign began today is accepted choice of the people and respect the results of elections and political action to achieve the aspirations of the masses that rose up to change, all the results and preparations, and understandings with everyone relies on a substrate primary are excluded al-Maliki as prime minister, but we know that this option is not enough and there must be a shared vision between the various forces of how to prevent the emergence of owners again., that call Uniting for Reform launched first of its call to unite the efforts of the House of Representatives in Each province and to give priority to the aspirations of the people of their wallets and promote ways to communicate with the masses of the House of Representatives and with conservative management and its Board of Directors to see the reality and the problems addressed. "ended.