“EVICT MALIKI” COUNTDOWN : 13 DAYS TO THE SCHEDULED* ELECTION
* NOTE: that the countdown notice has been amended to qualify the Election as ”Scheduled ” to give emphasis to the tenuous state of political / constitutional affairs in Iraq in recent days and specifically the mention in the news of a possible delay in the election due to the Anbar diaspora. Add to the foregoing the ” threat” of the election occurring under martial law with Maliki as the chief executive officer.
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq and Turkey: An Enduring Relationship or Temporary Marriage?
By DAVID ROMANO
In Turkish political circles, a popular joke holds that "the United States wanted Turkey and Iraq's Kurds to become friends, not to get married." As Turkish-Iraqi Kurdish cooperation in especially the hydrocarbons realm steadily deepens, observers increasingly ask if the relationship is an enduring one or fleeting.
An enduring strategic relationship, just like a solid marriage, is born of shared national interests, mutual respect and real interdependence. A fleeting cooperation, in contrast, stems from a temporary confluence of political interests, typically dependent on the personalities and preferences of leaders who may fall from power in the foreseeable future. Like a temporary marriage, such cooperation can fulfill pressing needs and preferences, but both parties know the arrangement will be discarded in short order. Have Ankara and Erbil become real strategic partners or will the relationship last only as long as Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Barzani remain the heads of their respective governments?
Those who argue that the relationship is dependent on the leaders currently in place often assume these people have a good personal relationship, which in turn sustains their government’s cooperation. I am not so sure Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Barzani like each other on a personal level at all, however. Not so long ago they traded recriminations and even threats, and Ankara would speak with Baghdad instead of Erbil when it needed something like cooperation against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). It was in 2007 that Massoud Barzani stated ““You [Turkey] do not talk to me in an official capacity. You do not accept me as a partner for talks. You do not maintain a dialogue with me. Then suddenly you want me to take action for you against the PKK? Is this a way to do things?” Although the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey looks very different now, there appears little evidence that things improved because of a special, personal rapport between the two leaders or some of their top ministers.
So what changed? The first critical development occurred when Prime Minister Erdogan effectively eviscerated the “deep state” in Turkey – the unelected Kemalist elite in the military and elsewhere. It was the deep state that prevented any Turkish government – including that of Mr. Ozal in the late 1980s and early 1990s – from even saying the word “Kurdish,” much less embracing a Kurdish political entity anywhere. The mentality of the old style Kemalists saw anything Kurdish, whether in Turkey or in Alaska, as a threat and Ankara’s enemy. The final death knell of the deep state sounded in the summer of 2011, when all of Turkey’s top generals resigned.
With the deep state out of the way, leaders in Ankara who were more focused on Muslim identity than a mono-national Turkish identity found themselves free to embrace Iraqi Kurds. Their strategic reasons for doing so far outweigh any personal sympathies. First of all, Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Develop Party (AKP) now looks like it is can retain enough votes to stay in power no matter what, so long as the economy remains reasonably good and it continues to appeal to both ethnic Turks and ethnic Kurds – something I examined in my column of April 3 (“The Teflon Prime Minister”). Appealing to ethnic Kurds becomes easier when the AKP is able to say “This government is anti-PKK, not anti-Kurdish – just look at our reforms and our great relationship with Presidents Barzani and Talabani!” If the new token Kurdish friend Ankara now takes to all its receptions and parties also helps it contain the PKK and PKK front groups in Syria, that’s an added reason to keep the friend close for a long time.
Keeping the economy afloat to keep winning elections is more complicated. A key part of the AKP’s economic strategy relies on energy imports for a hungry, fast-growing economy. They especially need gas for Turkey’s power plants, and what comes from existing pipelines from Russia and Iran is expensive and limited given current infrastructure. What’s more, Russia and Iran stand out as the real threats to Turkey and its interests in the region. Iraqi Kurdistan, on the other hand, lacks the power to seriously threaten Turkey and offers much cheaper oil and gas. Even if Turkey wanted to buy its oil and gas from Baghdad, the hydrocarbons would still have to pass through Kurdistan.
Leaders in Baghdad seem far too close to Russia, Iran and the Assad regime in any case. Especially with Turkey’s new assertive foreign policy role in a proxy regional Sunni-Shiite rivalry, the Sunni Iraqi Kurds stand out as a natural ally. These days, the KRG also looks like the only neighbor Turkey has zero problems with. None of these key strategic considerations appear likely to change for Turkey any time soon.
The KRG, meanwhile, needs an outlet for its oil and an alternative to dependency on Baghdad. KRG leaders are none too fond of the PKK and its anti-capitalist, far leftist outlook either. As a result, Turkish and KRG leaders do not have to like each other all that much. They will continue to need each other, which is what the most enduring political relationships (as well as a lot of long marriages) depend upon.
David Romano has been a Rudaw columnist since August 2010. He is the Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and author of The Kurdish Nationalist Movement (2006, Cambridge University Press).
British report: the Kurdistan region will announce a Kurdish state during the next two years
11:30:16 / 04/2014
Khandan - A report issued by the International Center for Development Studies, based in the British capital London to witness two years next couple of secession of the Kurdistan region of Iraq and the declaration of a Kurdish state. report pointed out that the circumstances surrounding the province of Kurdistan and the inability of the region to withstand the financial pressures of Baghdad in the non-payment of the budget and allow the export of oil powers of the region will pay for the declaration of the state and Kurdish separatism. report indicates that the export of oil from the region will be the first features of a Kurdish state, especially since many references issued by the Turkish government shows a lack of opposition to the establishment of that state.
Turkey and Erdogan's government sees the Kurdistan region as a strategic ally and increase the volume of bilateral trade to more than 10 billion dollars and the presence of nearly 1600 Turkish company in the region and prepare for the export of Kurdish oil to Turkey and from him to the world's only explicit references to the satisfaction of Turkey to declare a Kurdish state in northern Iraq
According to the report, Iran also would not mind a Kurdish state because Tehran is fully aware that it reduces the share of Iraq in OPEC, especially as they plan to return strongly to the global oil market after the lifting of sanctions. while Syria does not seem to be able today to express any opinion regards to the case Kurdish especially that Syria's Kurds have become part of the bloody conflict. report shows the International Center for Development Studies, the United States and Europe do not Tmaanaan of their part of the declaration of a Kurdish state to the presence of most of its oil in the Kurdistan region, with a clear interest features of the contracts with the region and the desire to overcome the obstacle of differences between Baghdad and Erbil that impede the access of exports to global markets. production of oil determines the separation of Kurdistan, report the International Center for Development Studies indicate that Baghdad bear part of the responsibility for any decision Kurdish secession because the omission of Baghdad on the repayment of the region's share of the budget and identified b 17% and opposition to the export of oil from the region did not make the card is another option, but the search for solutions to their crisis.
Report shows that the declaration of a Kurdish state would allow the Kurds from the sale of quantities of oil stored and exported to the global market and reap the revenue to calculate their state emerging. , but the report shows the existence of dilemmas that do not relate to surrounding countries, but including Kurdistan will earn from oil revenues in the event of separation from Baghdad. Vemoazna territory amounting to 17% of Iraq's budget would allow the region to 25.517 billion dollars, while in the case of the separation of the territory and sell 400 thousand barrels per day, the revenues will be, according to the current price of a barrel of oil for nearly 15 billion dollars annually, a difference of less than $ 10 billion. In addition, the export capacity of the region and the infrastructure of the oil you need more time, so question of the separation of the Kurdistan region in the current circumstances is considered unlikely.
According to the report needed Kurdistan region to export around 280 thousand barrels another day to make up the shortfall in the budget and to pay the salaries of its staff without returning to Baghdad. This means that the timing of the territory as a state associated with a great deal of oil and the ability of the giant companies in the region to export. According to the report of the International Center for Development Studies, the Kurdistan region of Iraq will be able in 2017 to export 700 thousand barrels of oil per day, which is considered a crucial stage in the history of Iraq and Kurdistan alike. However, the report indicates that the declaration of a Kurdish state is linked to the ability of successive governments in Baghdad to accommodate the expansion of the oil and flexibility in dealing with the region in oil prices, which determine a large part of her features. about the "Arab News"
Judicial Authority issued a decision to open offices Baghdadi immediately
BAGHDAD / Baghdadi News .. Court of First Instance ruled in Baghdad's Karrada re-opening of the offices of Al Baghdadi in all parts of Iraq, and obliges the media and communications to implement the decision immediately and license the use of the live broadcast devices.
A judicial decision which Addrth Court, Wednesday, forcing general manager, head of the executive branch of the media and communications in addition to his job implement the decision of a board of appeal No. (30) dated 30/01/2012, and the judge to open the offices of Al Baghdadi in all parts of Iraq and licensing of transmitters direct action on the entire Iraqi territory.
The decision also included the right channel to follow legal procedures in accordance with the laws in force for the opening of its offices in all parts of Iraq.
The legal body in Al Baghdadi has filed an appeal to the Court of First Instance of Karrada, the implementation of the decision of a board of appeal No. (30) dated 30/01/2012 and the counting procedures to shut down the station's offices in violation of the law, which was not implemented in a timely manner by the media and communications for political reasons and obsequious pressures exerted by some quarters of the window.
The Al Baghdadi had earned earlier decision of the Federal Court of Cassation compensating them more than $ 10 billion dinars, in return for the damage that followed suit as a result of the closure of its offices.
Allawi announces list of Erbil province, vowing to reject the third term of the owners
Erbil / term-Presse
Leader of the National Coalition, Iyad Allawi, for his own list Arbil to run for parliament, and attacked in the United States and described its policy as a failure, he stressed that Iran "to Atnih", and vowed that he "will not accept a third term for the owners."
The head of a coalition of national, Iyad Allawi, in a speech at the ceremony and attended (range Press) "When Iraq occupied did not fall out of power, but also landed the state as well, and now the Iraqi people pay the price of the fall of the power and the state, and we tried to build a state citizen real Nothingness where minorities or majorities, but where full citizenship, a measure of equality and justice. "
He said Allawi, "As you know, falling nearly a thousand martyrs month in Iraq, according to official statistics of the government in addition to the wounded, the disabled, widows and orphans, and that means a civil war sense of the word must recognize them and must say that Iraq has fallen into the abyss."
He added that the coalition "has not been held yet and alliances existing between him and the other blocks is a fundamental understandings must be taken into consideration."
Allawi vowed that the coalition "will not accept the state's third owners," stressing that "for any third Olayh Prime Minister al-Maliki and them."
And about the effects of the U.S. and Iran in the formation of the current Iraqi government after it won the Iraqi List, which was Allawi's faction in the previous elections, Allawi stressed that he "is not interested in Iran," The U.S. is the "state interests, was on the verge of pulling out of Iraq and they want to believe in this withdrawal, and felt that in the interest of the U.S. withdrawal to be Bmadarah Iran, and this has taken the position taken, knowing that America no longer has the important tools not only in Iraq but also in the broader Middle East. "
He continued, "Look at how America has failed in Palestine, and stopped the peace efforts have faltered in that country, as well as in Afghanistan, which began America in which to withdraw and the Taliban began to rise strongly, and Somalia is torn, as well as Sudan, and al-Qaeda has become a preoccupation daily in the Horn of Africa and North Africa, these are all evidence of the failure of the U.S. and Western policies in the whole region. "
For its part, the spokeswoman said formal coalition of national Maysoon al in an interview to the (long-Presse), "The American attitudes related to their interests, which does not support the individual, but also looking for its own interests, which lie in the continuation of the flow of Iraqi oil, as well as Iran, they also defend their interests and not for specific individuals ". The Damaluji to "the existence of understandings between the list and the major powers of the Kurdistan Alliance and the Sadrists and the Supreme Islamic Council and forces her along in the Iraqi street," and called for "the unification of visions in the state after the election, and not continue to al-Maliki in any way."
And accused al-Maliki of failing "to achieve security and national reconciliation and the elimination of corruption and the provision of services in all areas," asserting that if he "was able to al-Maliki said gets the third term, Iraq will remain united and disintegrate the outskirts great if Mabakat Iraqi politics so."
The leader of the coalition, the Iraqi National Iyad Allawi board, in the (April 12, 2014), during a press conference to announce the electoral program of the coalition, held at the Palestine Hotel Meridien, the center of Baghdad, in alliance with the Sadrists and the Supreme Council and the President of the Kurdistan region, Massoud Barzani, after the next parliamentary elections, As expressed "fear of the impact of the events taking place in Anbar province and parts of Baghdad belt to hold the elections, confirmed that there was intent" to abort the elections, and the reduction of power by prolonging the military operations in those areas. "
It is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in the whole of Iraq in the thirtieth of this April, and the number of candidates have 9040 people in addition to the 713 candidates for the provincial councils of the Kurdistan region.
Barzani and US Ambassador mull the impact of election results to change the political map
Editor, Amar Tarek-Thursday 17 April 2014 08: 37
The President discussed the Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani and US Ambassador to Iraq Robert Stephen bikroft, the impact of upcoming elections to change the political map in Iraq, both sides expressed the hope that the results of the coming elections and Iraq crises.
The Kurdistan regional presidency said in a statement posted on its official website and read the Sumerian "news", "Kurdish regional President Massoud Barzani met with u.s. Ambassador to Iraq Robert Stephen bikroft", indicating that "the two sides discussed" the political, security and military situations, conditions of Anbar province and ways to address the political crisis in Iraq. "
"The two sides discussed the impact of the Iraqi Parliament elections to change the political map of Iraq," they hoped to resolve the problems and crises through Iraq election results ".
The next parliamentary election is the biggest event in Iraq being determined by mass nominate the Prime Minister and take over top positions in the State, where political movements and active forces now to form alliances in post election results coming in 30 this month.
KRG offer a new proposal to resolve the dispute with the oil Baghdad
07:43:17 / 04/2014
Khandan - revealed the Kurdistan Alliance bloc that the talks conducted by the Quartet formed by the Iraqi parliament recently to resolve the dispute of oil between Baghdad and Erbil resulted in a proposal submitted by the Committee headed by the first deputy of the Parliament Qusay al-Suhail KRG President Barzani. said the spokesman for the Kurdistan Alliance pro-Tayeb, said that "Barzani told the committee, which includes, in addition to al-Suhail, both Aref Tayfur, second deputy speaker of parliament, and Fuad Masum, head of the Kurdistan Alliance bloc, and Adnan al-Janabi, chairman of the Commission on oil and energy parliamentary, that he proposed to the federal government in Baghdad to form A technical committee of neutral experts assume the verification process of the potential of each province or territory producer of oil on the quantity that could be exported and is not produced only because the production is export. " said Tayeb told «Middle East» that "this proposal will be binding on the Kurdistan if the Committee approved it It also required all oil-producing provinces in Iraq with the aim to get rid of all of the assumptions and preconditions on the amount of what comes out of oil. "
Explained the good that "the delegation which visited the region is not a negotiating team as much as it is a delegation mediation in order to bridge the gap in viewpoints between the two sides and on the back tension that happened between the region and the center due to the contents of the budget bill obliges the amount of the Kurdistan region to be exported, which is 400 thousand barrels, as well as the imposition of penalty clauses in the event of non-compliance with the export of this amount. " A good "The quantity contained in the draft budget is not accurate, but is the amount of virtual and therefore the rejection of the terms of the penal stems from the fact that if we were able to produce 400 thousand barrels per day, it is not necessarily to be able to be exported because production is export, since there are oil fields Many in the region produce oil, but they are still without an infrastructure for export, especially the pipes that connect them. "
Through the good desire for the Kurdistan Alliance to "respond to the federal government for this proposal, which would end the problems between the two parties, including technical problems quickly turn to the problems and political crises, "adding that" the approval of the formation of the committee would pave the way for the possibility of adoption of the budget after the elections because the current session of Parliament ends practically in mid-June, and the thus still a chance for approval rather than migrated to the next government. " and on whether the Kurdistan Alliance will resume its sessions in parliament to approve the budget, said the good: "In the event was approved on the Commission, it is imperative that the Cabinet shall issue a supplement to the budget to parliament includes not specify the quantity that should the region exported a 400 thousand barrels per day and raise the criminal penalties imposed on the region. "
KRG propose a compromise to resolve the dispute «oil» with Baghdad
Thu Apr 17 2014 08:11 | (Voice of Iraq)
Baghdad: Hamza Mustafa
Revealed the Kurdistan Alliance bloc in the Iraqi parliament that the talks conducted by the Quartet, which recently set up by the Iraqi parliament to resolve the dispute of oil between Baghdad and Erbil resulted in a proposal submitted by the Committee headed by the first deputy of the Parliament Qusay al-Suhail KRG President Barzani. A spokesman for the Kurdistan Alliance, a pro Ok, told the «Middle East» «Barzani told the committee, which includes, in addition to al-Suhail, both Aref Tayfur, second deputy speaker of parliament, and Fuad Masum, head of the Kurdistan Alliance bloc, and Adnan al-Janabi, Chairman of the parliamentary oil and energy, he proposed to the federal government in Baghdad to form a technical committee of neutral experts assume the verification process of the potential of each province or territory producer of oil on the quantity that could be exported, and not only because the production is export production ». Ok added that «this proposal will be binding in the event of the Kurdistan Committee approved it also required all oil-producing provinces in Iraq with the aim to get rid of all of the assumptions and preconditions on the amount of what comes out of the oil». The good that «the delegation, which visited the region is not a negotiating team as much as it is a delegation mediation in order to bridge the gap in viewpoints between the two sides and on the back of the tension that happened between the region and the center due to the contents of the budget bill, the amount of commits Kurdistan region exported, which is 400 thousand barrels, as well as imposition of penalty clauses in the event of non-compliance with the export of this quantity ». The good that «quantity contained in the draft budget is not accurate, but is the amount of virtual and therefore the rejection of the terms of the penal stems from the fact that if we were able to produce 400 thousand barrels per day, it is not necessarily to be able to be exported because production is export, since there are oil fields Many in the region produce oil, but they are still without an infrastructure for export, especially the pipes that connect them ». Through good desire for the Kurdistan Alliance to «respond to the federal government for this proposal, which would end the problems between the two parties, including technical problems that quickly turn into problems and political crises», pointing out that «the approval of the formation of the committee would pave the way for the possibility of adoption of the budget after the elections because the current session of Parliament ends practically in mid-June next, and thus is still a chance for approval, rather than carried over to the next government ».
And on whether the Kurdistan Alliance will resume its sessions in parliament to approve the budget, said good: «In case was approved on the Commission, it is imperative that the Cabinet shall issue a supplement to the budget to parliament includes not specify the amount must region exported a 400 thousand barrels per day, and the lifting of sanctions Criminal imposed on the region ».
The Iraqi parliament has recessed several times for lack of quorum due to the masses of the province of the Kurdistan Alliance and «united», led by Parliament Speaker Osama Najafi meetings. Before the end of the legislative term of the last Parliament form a quadripartite committee to resolve the dispute while the oil decided to adjourn until further notice depends on what the Quartet achieve results.
The Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul-Karim and coffee recently announced near the center and the region reach a solution to the dispute of oil after it agreed KRG to export 100 thousand barrels a day through the company «Sumo» National. Non-stop exporting oil due to sabotage suffered by the carrier pipe from Kirkuk to Ceyhan prevented the export of this amount. **** See http://www.ninanews.com/english/News...ar95_VQ=HDLJFL ****
United: not ask our allies to resolve the issue of al-Hashemi, after the election
10:03:16 / 04/2014
Khandan - Ali Naji announced bloc united for reform, it did not raise the issue of former Vice-President Tareq al-Hashemi for discussion on its allies from other political blocs, in order to be resolved after the next parliamentary elections. MP said the bloc united Jamal al-Kilani in a statement to "Khandan" that "there Many of the understandings and visions converged between united and a number of political blocs Kalthalv Kurdistan and the Sadrists and the Supreme Council, "adding that" these understandings and clear through the positions of the leaders of the blocks, and will have a positive impact after the parliamentary elections. " said Kilani that "the issue of Tariq al-Hashemi will not be Subject Search through political meetings that take place, "noting that" it is united with them in blocks within the Iraqi List, confirm to solve the crises in the country, including the issue of al-Hashemi, through a fair trial can defend himself through it. "
Ahrar MP: Maliki, Barzani’s agreements of 2010 hurdle endorsement of 2014 budget
Thursday, 17 April 2014 10:16
Baghdad (AIN) –Member of the Ahrar Bloc, MP Jawad al-Jubouri, pointed out that “The agreements concluded by the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the President of the Kurdistan Region Masoud Barzani in 2010 have not been fulfilled yet,” stressing that “Neglecting fulfillment of those agreements hurdle the endorsement of the 2014 budget law.”
MP Jubouri stated to AIN “PM Maliki did not adhere to the agreements reached with Barzani in 2010 and the Government of Kurdistan Region did not adopt open dialogue to settle the disputes with Baghdad.”
He called all political sides to “Adopt dialogue in order to endorse the budget law draft and safe Iraq from the crisis.”
Mahmoud Othman confirms possibility of forming a new coalition comprising Barzani, Allawi al-Hakim, al-Sadr and Najafi to form the next government
BAGHDAD / NINA / The independent MP of the coalition of Kurdish blocs, Mahmoud Othman confirmed " the possibility of establishing a new alliance comprises Barzani , Allawi, al-Hakim, al-Sadr and al-Nujaifi to form the next government ," ruling out holding a session for the House of Representatives before the parliamentary elections ."
He told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / that all the efforts being made by committees and political figures to solve the problem of the budget had failed , expecting to pass the budget by consensus among some of the political blocs after the next parliamentary election and before next June 14 , the deadline for the end of the current Parliament according to the constitution . "
He pointed out "the House will not hold its next meeting, but after the consensus among all the political blocs on the budget bill and this is a difficult to be achieved in the coming period as the political blocs are busy with electoral campaign for their candidates ."
About Iyad Allawi's visit to Arbil and his meeting with the region's president, Massoud Barzani, Othman said that the relationship between Barzani and Allawi are old and good and it is possible to form a new coalition bringing them together as well as blocs of al-Hakim, al-Sadr and Najafi after the election and all of these blocs are against the way of managing State by current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
The head of the Kurdistan region, Massoud Barzani discussed with the head of the National Coalition , Iyad Allawi the political situation in the region and the security and political situation in Iraq in general and the current events in Anbar province .
A statement by the presidency of the region cited that: "The two sides discussed relations between the province and Baghdad and the elections of the Iraqi parliament . Both men stressed that the political process in Iraq has reached a dead end and must get radical changes in the political process in Iraq."
Ahrar bloc: Our future alliances does not target a specific bloc, but the behavior and style of the State Administration
BAGHDAD / NINA / The Ahrar bloc, of the Sadr movement confirmed that future's alliances do not target a particular person , but stand against the negative behavior of the State's Administration.
The spokesman of the bloc, Jawad al-Jubouri said in a statement to the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / " our statements and future alliances do not target any bloc , but we are targeting the behavior and style of management of the state. If this style This was negative we stand against it, and what we are looking for is a positive style and behavior, and who stand close to our project will be an ally. "
He explained that " a lot of other blocs involved with Ahrar bloc and approach to its approach of the change project , and this will be achieved by the political majority and strong alliance to form the next government ."
The MP, of the Muttahidoon coalition, Ahmed al-Mesari detect the presence of a tentative agreement between ( the citizen, Ahrar, Muttahidoon and the Kurdistan blocs to form the next government .
It is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on the thirtieth of April amid intense rivalry between the political blocs to get the largest number of seats in the next parliament to form the government .