As Maliki Visits Washington, the Iraqi Parliament Seeks Electoral System Compromise
Posted by Reidar Visser on Friday, 1 November 2013 12:36
As Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki visits Washington, highly polarized narratives about the nature of his rule in Iraq compete for attention. Maliki himself focuses on reintegration in the Arab world, growth in oil production, and a modicum of internal stability that is only disturbed by the situation in Syria. Some American senators see things very differently, accusing him of authoritarianism and a failure to create a truly inclusive government. In the most extreme iteration of this point of view, Maliki is seen as contributing to the problems in Syria because of the ways Iran is allowed to use Iraqi territory in their efforts to bolster the Assad regime.
It may be worthwhile to use current developments on the Iraqi political scene – unfolding day by day as Maliki visits Washington – as a yardstick for evaluating these very different interpretations of his premiership. These days, Iraqi politicians are busying themselves with amendments to the country’s electoral system. They are trying to pass a brand new election law that will incorporate changes to the current law from 2005 following criticisms from the federal supreme court. If this fails, they will simply make yet another amendment to the existing one – but the independent electoral commission IHEC has warned that it needs to do so fast in order that technical preparations can be completed before elections can go ahead in April 2014.
The optics of this aren’t entirely unfortunate for Maliki. Far from intervening in the squabbles in the Iraqi parliament which began this week and continue on Saturday, he is far away in Washington, not at all fitting the description of him as a paranoid, control-freak autocrat that is terrified of challenges to his rule. The debate about the election law itself has also degenerated into basic haggling over seat allocations to the various provinces, quite similar to what we saw in the autumn of 2009. Initially, there had been prospects for more radical changes to the districting system, but what we are seeing now is a replay of disputes that are four years old, and that mainly relate to the preference of the Kurdish parties to use the population statistics from the ministry of planning rather than those of the ministry of trade. Most likely a solution will eventually be found, and most likely it will involve some kind of opaque compromise in which statistics will be subordinated to the horse-trading efforts of Iraqi parliamentarians.
There is however one important caveat here that ultimately also relates to the evaluation of the current state of Maliki’s Iraq. What has failed to receive much attention is the fact that the law that is currently being considered by the Iraqi parliament is a brand new law proposal, rather than amendments to the existing law. As a “proposal” or muqtarah it has not been approved by the cabinet, and the most recent trend has been for the Iraqi supreme court to strike down this kind of proposals as incomplete legislative acts – something it has done in particular when new laws have been to the disadvantage of Maliki. Moreover, since the current iteration of the election law from 2005 has also been deemed unconstitutional because of its seat distribution formula, there is a theoretical possibility that Iraq will be without a valid election law if anyone challenges the new law proposals. Maliki might do so if he wishes to delay the elections, although there would be a highly ironic twist to this in that Maliki’s allies are the ones who favour the seat distribution key of the 2005 law that has since been deemed unconstitutional by the supreme court and is the reason the law is being revised in the first place. If this kind of scenario should materialize, it would clearly support the interpretation that Maliki is unafraid of the Iraqi parliament because he chooses to ignore it, relying instead on rulings by the supreme court that consistently strengthens his hold on power.
The reality, as ever, is of course somewhere between these extremes. And the parliamentary elections of 2014 will in many ways decide which of the two scenarios prevails in the long term. Instead of seeking to impose particular preferences regarding Iraq’s electoral system or fetishizing the question of a third term for Maliki, Washington should use the visit of the Iraqi PM to provide the him with a gentle reminder that Iraq’s problems cannot be reduced to spillover from Syria alone. Whilst there is nothing in the Iraqi constitution or democratic theory more broadly that stands in the way of a third term for Maliki, a failure on his part to build a broader and more inclusive electoral alliance could prevent him from succeeding for the third time. This is not the same as saying that any new government should be a power-sharing (as opposed to a political majority one). It just implies that Maliki’s State of Law coalition in its current configuration looks very far from being capable of securing a majority in the next Iraqi assembly, quite regardless of which method is adopted to count the votes and how many seats are allotted to each of the provinces.
Foreign Affairs parliamentary: Maliki's current visit to Washington, re-resumption of security coordination after a stopover since the U.S. withdrawal
01-11-2013 | (Voice of Iraq)
Range Press / Baghdad
I went back to the Foreign Relations Committee, parliamentary, on Friday, the visit of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the current and Ashtun, a step towards the resumption of "security coordination" between the two countries, and stressed that coordination "security and intelligence" between them "stop" at the exit of U.S. troops, while pointed out that the nature of the War waged by Baghdad with "global terrorism" require the cooperation of countries of the whole world to defeat al-Qaida and other groups "hostile to man,"
A member of the Foreign Relations Committee, parliamentary, Sami al-Askari, said in an interview to (range Press), "The supply America any state information security needs to be a joint coordination between the two countries," adding that "security cooperation and intelligence between Iraq and America stopped at the exit of U.S. troops from Iraq. "
The Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki arrived, Wednesday, (October 30, 2013) to Washington DC, at the head of a ministerial delegation and Parliament, on an official visit lasts five days, is expected to be overwhelmed by the aspects of security and the Syrian file, at a time when Iraq is going through its worst security disorder since 2008, and just two weeks before the second anniversary of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from him.
The military added that "al-Maliki's visit to Washington opened up the possibility of achieving security coordination with the United States to take advantage of their expertise and information in this aspect," pointing out that "the most important objectives of the visit search of security and military cooperation between Iraq and the United States."
The member of the Foreign Relations Committee, the parliamentary, that "Iraq is at war with terrorism is international in nature should be concerted efforts of countries of the whole world in order to defeat al-Qaeda and terrorist groups hostile to man," stressing that "the subject of supplying Iraq with sophisticated weapons and air defense systems and intelligence cooperation, comes in this framework. "
An official of the U.S. administration, who asked not to be named, said earlier on Thursday, many of the insurgents infiltrating from Syria into Iraq and are equipped with heavy weapons targeted by Iraqi forces and civilian areas, including arenas stadiums, weddings and boards of Solace, which generates the consequences of psychological violent, noting that Washington has a good follow-up to the networks of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, and their locations, and anywhere come, stressing that the United States will increase its cooperation with the Iraqis in the field of expertise to curb such attacks and to help the Iraqis configure look better than face to be able to targeting those networks effectively.
To the transfer of an official statement from U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, as saying that the United States is committed to supporting Iraq in the face of challenges, especially terrorism, stressing that the U.S. administration is working to meet the needs of Iraq with regard to the fight against terrorism, the fact that terrorist groups share a common enemy of both Iraq and the United States .
It is expected to continue a relationship Iraq and the United States during the next phase in what is known (the Strategic Framework Agreement) which provides for the exchange and partnership between the two countries in the fields of economic, diplomatic, cultural and security.
Sadoun confirms the arrival of all parliamentary blocs to the conviction of the need to vote on the draft election law
01-11-2013 | (Voice of Iraq)
{Baghdad: Euphrates News}
MP for the Kurdistan Alliance Mohsen al-Sadoun all blocks access to the conviction of the need to vote on the draft election law.
He said in a statement to the Euphrates News Agency {} that "the law has become clear to all the blocks have reached the conviction of the need to vote on the election law."
Sadoun between that "the report of the Ministry of Planning explained that there is an increase in the number of people in all areas of Iraq has been to reach a final conclusion on the increase in the number of seats in the parliament."
He pointed out that "this matter led to that some believe that increasing the number of MPs burden الميزاينة and affect the Iraqi economy and this is their point of view."
Sadoun said "there was a study prepared and submitted to the Speaker of Parliament to walk in the law passed and especially that the decision was the completion of the legislation law in 30 days or 31 seemed parliament to vote on the bill before deciding to postpone the vote until tomorrow Saturday."
The House of Representatives voted yesterday to six paragraphs of articles of the election law, raising its until tomorrow, Saturday.
The Electoral Commission for elections has warned of the Presidium of the House of Representatives that it arrived at the red line on the election date.
But for him Najafi asked the heads of parliamentary blocs to meet him outside the hall of the House of Representatives to get to know the final opinion on the election law.
Then announced Najafi parliamentary blocs reached an agreement on the election law after seeing the statistics of the Ministry of Planning on the number of population, with the exception of one block, which fell from its position and did not unnamed speaker.
Najafi revealed in part so that the number of members of the next parliament will be 351 by the Central Statistical Ministry of Planning.
Mohammadi: U.S. calls to hearing from all sides in Iraq
01-11-2013 | (Voice of Iraq)
He called for a united alliance, Dr. Walid Abboud Mohammadi United States to hearing from all sides in Iraq, not one-sided, many Iraqis see as he opponent and referee at the same time.
Mohammadi said in an interview today that what we hear from the Prime Minister's remarks in Washington, "surprise and puzzlement, especially with regard to the application of the Constitution strictly."
He added that everyone knows that Constitution to ايطبق the day in Iraq, but it takes when it conforms with the interests and requirements of the government and the selection it hits the wall.
Mohammadi called الكونكرس U.S. to hearing from all parties in Iraq to reach the facts as they are and a clearer picture can not beat the view and one on each of Iraqi society.
Detect Iraqi Central Bank Governor / Agency Abdul Basit Turki, Wednesday, that the stock of Iraq’s largest gold from the tally of foreign currency, confirming the assignment set of files of corruption at the central bank to the judiciary, adding that the exit from Chapter VII will allow us greater flexibility discretion, noting that the project raise zeros from the currency has been postponed for the time being.
Said Turki in an exclusive interview with “Obelisk” of Karbala that “Iraq has stocks of gold is greater than the tally of foreign currency and gold reserves of Iraq is managed by the central bank and deposited at the Bank for International Settlements as an agent of the Central Bank,” noting that “Iraq is the owner of the treasury now, even before getting out of Chapter VII and the gold before a proportion of 10% of stockpiling reserves of the components of the Central Bank and Reserve President consists of foreign currency and is used to determine the exchange rate of foreign currency احتياطنا until last May $ 76 billion of hard currency. “
“Referred to a set of files of corruption at the central bank to eliminate was indicted for some officials for corruption some verdicts have been issued in the first case, as has been bringing in some of the issues managers of private banks to investigate.”
Turki denied “the existence of frozen funds outside the control of the Iraqi administration,” stressing that “the frozen funds being diverted down according to the UN resolution both before and out of Chapter VII or beyond to the fund managed by the Central Bank of Iraq.”
The Turkish that “out of Chapter VII will allow us the freedom to act greater flexibility in addition to creating a general atmosphere to attract foreign investment,” adding that “the great importance is the completion of Iraq’s sovereignty because Quana under the provisions of Chapter VII offered for the intervention of international forces in some of the decisions on Iraq , “and that” the withdrawal of Iraq from Chapter VII-VI means the problems could be solved bilaterally with countries without international intervention and this is an important step on the level of Iraq. “
He revealed that “the financial statements did not send to the Central Bank in spite of our demand so we asked for statements until 30/6 did we receive until now.”
He said that “the relationship between the value of the currency and issued on the basis of the existence of the gold content disappeared since 1971 and thus value of the currency depends on two foundations of the strength of the economy and the ability to maneuver through the presence of foreign currencies can be pumped in the market.”
And that “Iraq’s budget going to rise,” expressing his confidence in “through my follow up of the accounts of the Ministry of Finance stocks, roundish and unexpected revenue sufficient for the implementation of the budget, even if 100% exhausted.”
And money laundering, said Turki that “been sentenced two of the defendants laundered the money and there are still four people accused of directly we have begun to audit the transactions since we receive the task of the central bank and returned to the transactions ancient that we believe the existence of problematic where we have discovered the existence of Notes basic Fastqdinma managers commissioners and officials banks and Naakecnahm in these observations and احلنا to eliminate from not convinced Bhjajhm “.
Turkish revealed “to postpone the project raise zeros from the currency and the value of the Iraqi dinar toward climb to more power because we passed the bottleneck.”
Iraq’s Elections Law: Much Ado, Little Progress
By RUDAW 6 hours ago
Iraq’s Elections Law: Much Ado, Little Progress
BAGHDAD, Iraq – A controversial elections law that will determine how next year’s nationwide legislative elections in Iraq will be governed failed to make headway, after political parties were again unable to resolve differences and MPs managed to pass only six of the law’s 44 articles.
“The session was suspended to Saturday due to differences among the political lists and parties,” said Saeed Khoshnaw, an MP from the Kurdistan Alliance List. “Only six articles were passed today,” he told Rudaw.
The absence of a fixed elections law has sparked heated debates before every election. With nationwide legislative elections coming up next year, each political group is again locked in efforts to sway the law in directions of most benefit.
Iraqi Kurds believe the election law that governed the 2010 Iraqi parliamentary polls did not do them justice because they did not get the number of seats that would reflect the true Kurdish population in Iraq
“To correct those mistakes and undo the injustice, there should have been an investigation and to get the true share of provincial seats there should have been a general census,” Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani told a delegation last week, led by the Sunni parliamentary speaker, Osama Nujeifi.
The parliamentary election is expected in March 2014, but the worsening security situation in Iraq and frictions over the election law could pose a challenge to that deadline.
In the 2010 polls, the election law allowed for a semi-open election system and distributed Iraq into 18 election constituencies. In 2005, the whole country was treated as a single constituency using closed list proportional representation.
Kurds want the current election law to be rolled back to the 2005 law, which would grant them five more seats without losing Kurdish votes in other Iraqi provinces where Kurdish lists cannot compete due to the small numbers of Kurds living there.
In the meantime, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s State of law party, which won 89 seats out of 325 in 2010, prefers to retain the previous election law, claiming that prevents any party getting the majority of seats and is therefore in the best interest of Iraqis.
According to a proposal by the Kurdish Alliance, “compensatory seats” should be increased and divided based on the proportion of votes. They believe that the population increase in the Kurdistan Region has been higher than in the rest of Iraq.
The Ahrar bloc of Muqtada al-Sadr and the al-Iraqiya list have agreed that the Kurds should be compensated by up to eight seats in the next elections. The State of Law has rejected the proposal, Sbeiy news reported online.
In the past, Barzani has threatened to boycott the next election unless the law is reformed.
Erbil-Baghdad Tensions Increase
As Maliki Visits Washington
Translated from Al-Hayat (Pan Arab).
Statements made by the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami, noting that the Iraqi Kurdistan Region intends to export oil through Turkey, have reignited the dispute between the Kurds and the Iraqi federal government, which could obstruct the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Baghdad.
Summary :
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visits Washington as tensions between his government and the Kurdistan Regional Government increase over disputed oil exports.
Publisher: Al-Hayat (Pan Arab)
Original Title:
Kurdistan Region Moving Toward More Economic Independence
First Published: November 1, 2013
Posted on: November 1 2013
Translated by: Pascale Menassa
On another note, before meeting President Barack Obama, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki failed to dispel the concerns of US Congress and convince it to keep supplying Iraq with advanced weapons.
The Iraqi parties reached an agreement in April regarding oil exportation and the formation of joint committees to follow up on the pending issues, such as Baghdad’s settling its payments to the foreign oil companies operating in the region in return for the region’s resumption of its export activities. Despite this, officials from both sides admitted to the failure of the committees to do their work.
Hawrami addressed the Energy Conference in Istanbul yesterday, Oct. 31, and said, “The region will provide a second exportation pipeline through Turkey in two years, with a capacity of one million barrels per day. We will also evaluate our exports independently from the federal government as soon as the new pipeline, which will be connected to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan line, becomes operational. We lose thousands of barrels a day due to the link with the al-Qiyas station, which is operated by Baghdad. But these days are gone.”
“If the Baghdad government refuses our rights that are mentioned in the permanent constitution, we will resort to an alternative plan that exports the region’s oil and deducts the dues of companies operating there from our returns,” he added.
He also noted, “We support dealing with Baghdad according to the constitution, and the 2014 general Iraqi budget draft — estimated at $150 billion — dedicated $860 million to settle the mentioned dues.”
These statements irritated Iraq's deputy prime minister for energy, Hussein al-Shahristani, who said, “I asked the Iraqi Kurdistan government to link the two pipelines before the pumping station, in order to determine the flow of crude oil. But Baghdad did not receive any reply.”
Shahristani had used the term “smuggling oil to Turkey,” in a reference to the Kurdish plans. During a meeting with the president of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Turkish parliament, Volkan Bozkir, he said, “Both sides have discussed the strengthening of relations between the two countries and the ways to solve problems and pending issues that are related to smuggling oil without the knowledge and approval of the federal government and the Ministry of Oil.”
In April, Shahristani held Turkey accountable for the “smuggling” operations and said, “Allowing the Turkish side to conduct smuggling operations contradicts the Global Transparency Initiative.”
In Washington, Maliki failed to convince the US Congress of a middle ground that guarantees the persistent supply of military aid to Iraq in return for a political plan of openness to Kurds and Sunnis to cater to the demands of American congressmen. Some of the latter confirmed that Maliki did not wash away their concerns.
The Iraqi delegation continued its meetings with US Secretery of Defense Chuck Hagel on the eve of the White House meeting between Obama and Maliki.
On Wednesday and Thursday evening, Maliki met with the congressional Foreign Relations Committee. The convening sides discussed the security and political developments in Baghdad, as well as the military aid, mainly Apache helicopters. Republican Senator Bob Corker told Reuters, “I don't think [Maliki] seemed to internalize the concerns that we have about what's happening there ... and I don't think it was a particularly healthy meeting.”
Democratic Representative Eliot Engel, who met the Iraqi delegation, issued a similar criticism for Maliki. “It almost seems like after all the blood we lost and all the money we spent, that Iran seems to have more influence in Iraq than the United States does,” Engel noted.
He also added that Maliki reiterated during the meeting in the Congress: “Iraqi democracy is not perfect, but it's a democracy.”
Erbil-Baghdad Tensions Increase
As Maliki Visits Washington
Translated from Al-Hayat (Pan Arab).
Statements made by the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami, noting that the Iraqi Kurdistan Region intends to export oil through Turkey, have reignited the dispute between the Kurds and the Iraqi federal government, which could obstruct the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Baghdad.
Summary :
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visits Washington as tensions between his government and the Kurdistan Regional Government increase over disputed oil exports.
Publisher: Al-Hayat (Pan Arab)
Original Title:
Kurdistan Region Moving Toward More Economic Independence
First Published: November 1, 2013
Posted on: November 1 2013
Translated by: Pascale Menassa
On another note, before meeting President Barack Obama, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki failed to dispel the concerns of US Congress and convince it to keep supplying Iraq with advanced weapons.
The Iraqi parties reached an agreement in April regarding oil exportation and the formation of joint committees to follow up on the pending issues, such as Baghdad’s settling its payments to the foreign oil companies operating in the region in return for the region’s resumption of its export activities. Despite this, officials from both sides admitted to the failure of the committees to do their work.
Hawrami addressed the Energy Conference in Istanbul yesterday, Oct. 31, and said, “The region will provide a second exportation pipeline through Turkey in two years, with a capacity of one million barrels per day. We will also evaluate our exports independently from the federal government as soon as the new pipeline, which will be connected to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan line, becomes operational. We lose thousands of barrels a day due to the link with the al-Qiyas station, which is operated by Baghdad. But these days are gone.”
“If the Baghdad government refuses our rights that are mentioned in the permanent constitution, we will resort to an alternative plan that exports the region’s oil and deducts the dues of companies operating there from our returns,” he added.
He also noted, “We support dealing with Baghdad according to the constitution, and the 2014 general Iraqi budget draft — estimated at $150 billion — dedicated $860 million to settle the mentioned dues.”
These statements irritated Iraq's deputy prime minister for energy, Hussein al-Shahristani, who said, “I asked the Iraqi Kurdistan government to link the two pipelines before the pumping station, in order to determine the flow of crude oil. But Baghdad did not receive any reply.”
Shahristani had used the term “smuggling oil to Turkey,” in a reference to the Kurdish plans. During a meeting with the president of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Turkish parliament, Volkan Bozkir, he said, “Both sides have discussed the strengthening of relations between the two countries and the ways to solve problems and pending issues that are related to smuggling oil without the knowledge and approval of the federal government and the Ministry of Oil.”
In April, Shahristani held Turkey accountable for the “smuggling” operations and said, “Allowing the Turkish side to conduct smuggling operations contradicts the Global Transparency Initiative.”
In Washington, Maliki failed to convince the US Congress of a middle ground that guarantees the persistent supply of military aid to Iraq in return for a political plan of openness to Kurds and Sunnis to cater to the demands of American congressmen. Some of the latter confirmed that Maliki did not wash away their concerns.
The Iraqi delegation continued its meetings with US Secretery of Defense Chuck Hagel on the eve of the White House meeting between Obama and Maliki.
On Wednesday and Thursday evening, Maliki met with the congressional Foreign Relations Committee. The convening sides discussed the security and political developments in Baghdad, as well as the military aid, mainly Apache helicopters. Republican Senator Bob Corker told Reuters, “I don't think [Maliki] seemed to internalize the concerns that we have about what's happening there ... and I don't think it was a particularly healthy meeting.”
Democratic Representative Eliot Engel, who met the Iraqi delegation, issued a similar criticism for Maliki. “It almost seems like after all the blood we lost and all the money we spent, that Iran seems to have more influence in Iraq than the United States does,” Engel noted.
He also added that Maliki reiterated during the meeting in the Congress: “Iraqi democracy is not perfect, but it's a democracy.”
By: Ali Afshari for Al-Monitor Posted on October 31.
On Oct. 19, Iran’s parliament speaker Ali Larijani said, “The parliament will approve the necessary rules regarding various nuclear activities if it feels that the world powers are behaving in an unacceptable manner,” signaling a more assertive role for parliament in the nuclear negotiations.
Summary :
Iran's parliament will seek to to assert influence in supporting the nuclear negotiations to ensure that red lines such as full rapprochement are not crossed.
Author: Ali Afshari
Posted on: October 31 2013
Larijani did not elaborate on what he meant by "various nuclear activities" and only vaguely discussed this issue. He then accused the United States of acting maliciously toward the Iranian people and the Muslim world, accusing it of “starting wars, oppressing the Palestinians, plundering the assets of the Muslims and forcing puppet dictators on them.”
He then warned the Iranian negotiation team and the parliament’s National Security Commission to stay alert for duplicitous behavior on the part of the world powers.
These statements by Larijani stood in stark contrast to the generally constructive comments he made earlier in Europe in October, when he said that he viewed the nuclear negotiations “positively.”
The question is: Why the sudden change in tone, and what does it mean?
One likely reason for Larijani’s new tone is that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or those close to him have asked the parliament to assume a more restrictive role in the nuclear negotiations. As Iran the United States continue to hold bilateral talks, the potential for an Iran-US rapprochement is becoming more likely, albeit still very difficult. The parliament may try to stop the process of normalizing relations with the United States, acting as a lever that brings West-friendly Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif back into a line that the Supreme Leader may feel more comfortable with.
The parliament has one major function in the nuclear negotiations: One of the major requests of five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) may be that Iran sign on to additional protocols, a step that would need parliament’s approval.
It can be assumed that distinguishing and balancing between successful nuclear negotiations and preventing normalization of relations with the United States will be the two main and simultaneous tasks of parliament.
Larijani is uniquely suited to play this role, given his close relationship with Khamenei. A former nuclear negotiator himself, he has held important ministerial positions in Iran that are generally believed to require the blessing of the supreme leader. He is considered a pragmatic conservative within the Islamic Republic. This means he is not close to the Reformists, whom the supreme leader views with such suspicion, and is staunchly against the hard-liners aligned with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whom the supreme leader came to distrust in his second term as president. Thus, Larijani’s political history positions him to act mostly independently of other major political forces and movements outside Khamenei’s.
However, parliament itself is not united with respect to the nuclear negotiations and the Rouhani administration, and this has already caused trouble.
The majority faction, called “The Followers of Velayat,” headed by Ali Larijani, support the government in its plans for defusing tension with the West, improving the economy, resolving the nuclear issue without stepping over red lines such as normalization and creating political stability. Just as important, they also want to encourage the moderate Rouhani to lean toward the moderate Principalists. Larijani may issue warnings to the negotiators and step in when he feels it necessary, but he is aligned with the general approach of Rouhani’s administration so far.
The minority faction, however, has a negative view of Rouhani’s administration and expects it to fail in both its foreign and its internal policies. This faction, which is a subset of the radical Principalists, has substantial influence on the National Security and the Foreign Policy committee in the parliament. Members of this committee such as Ismail Kowsari denied before the UN General Assembly that Iran would ever negotiate with the United States, which he called “bloodthirsty.” He derisively called anyone who wanted to negotiate with the United States "a Reformist.” Essentially, this committee has become a tool of controlling and criticizing Zarif’s foreign policy approach, and it has already caused considerable damage to the foreign minister, who is in charge of the negotiations.
The National Security committee met with the foreign minister after the UN General Assembly meetings. Kayhan reported that Zarif said he agreed with the supreme leader that the telephone conversation between Rouhani and Obama was "inappropriate." Zarif denied saying such a thing, and later checked into a hospital with severe back and leg pain from stress. The speaker of the committee, for his part, did not say what exactly had been discussed during this session. Zarif's back pain was so severe that he attended a press conference at the nuclear negotiations in Geneva Oct. 16 in a wheelchair.
The second time the committee summoned the negotiators was after the session in Geneva. This time, Zarif could not participate, still suffering from back pain, and instead Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took his place. In this session, certain members criticized the decision to keep Iran’s proposal secret. However, Araghchi assured them that the red lines would not be crossed, and the negotiation team would not give up the nation’s right to nuclear technology.
For the time being, Khamenei has given his public support to the negotiations and resolving the nuclear file. If and when Iran and the P5+1 reach an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear file and Iran is asked to sign additional protocols, Larijani and parliament can exert their influence. Given the relationship between Larijani and the supreme leader, this will be done in accordance with the Islamic Republic’s red lines and special concerns of the supreme leader and his interests.
Ali Afshari is an Iranian political analyst. He was a former student leader and a member of the Central Committee of the Office for Consolidation of Unity (daftar tahkim Vahdat), which was the main and largest student organization in Iranian universities during the reform era. A doctoral candidate at George Washington University, he contributes regularly on current Iranian political events in Persian and English-language media.
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