Personal Opinion on RV/Removing Zeroes (PART 2 OF 2)
...CONTINUED FROM PART 1
Removing the Zeroes
The thing that really concerns me is all of the talk of removing the zeroes. If the RV happens before zeroes are removed, you may be thinking that none of that applies to you. But you really need to understand what that means to the rest of the world in order to understand whether your "RV first" is even possible.
RV / Removing Zeroes Scenarios
Here are the possibilities as I see them:
- Zeroes are not removed, No RV ever happens.
Good luck chatting with fellow Dinarians for the next 60 years with no results… Not likely.
- Zeroes are not removed, RV happens.
Your value of Dinar = the Amount you hold times the new Exchange Rate (D2USD). Great news for us, but completely contrary to countless news articles from Iraq. Not likely.
- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1:1, No RV ever happens.
You end up with more bills (one thousand of them instead of one of them) but the "conversion value" of the dinar is the same ($0.00086 per dinar). Not useful to anyone. Not likely.
- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1:1, and THEN an RV happens.
This would be great new for us. But again, this is totally contrary to the countless articles that have come out stating that the ratio will be 1000:1 (ie the bills will have the "same purchasing power"). Not likely.
- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1, and No RV ever happens
You end up with the same "number of bills" (one 25 note instead of one 25,000 note) but the "conversion value" of the dinar is the same ($0.00086 per dinar). This means that you now have 1,000 times less VALUE of Dinar. The Iraqi people would never go from "toilet paper" currency to 1,000 times LESS than "toilet paper" currency. Not useful to anyone. Not likely.
- Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1, and THEN an RV happens.
You end up with the same "number of bills" (one 25 note instead of one 25,000 note) but the "conversion value" of the dinar is different ($0.86 per dinar). This means that you now have the same VALUE of Dinar (or MORE if it RV's higher than $0.86). However, even if it went to $3.50, most of us would make approximately 4 times what we initially invested instead of a huge return. So the $1,000 of Dinar that you bought could be exchanged to USD for around $4,000. Most likely. Not exciting, but very likely.
- RV happens, and then Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1:1.
This is the same as #4 above.
- RV happens, and then Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1.
This sounds great. You may think you're "out of the picture" because you've cashed in already. But think about this. If your Dinar suddenly went from $0.00086 to $3.50, your 25,000 Dinar note would be worth about $87,500. That sounds great doesn't it! Not really, because if the Zeroes are removed at a rate of 1000:1 "with the same value" as the articles state, then a 25,000 Dinar note would now be worth the same as a 25 Dinar note. And why is that bad? Because that means that if a 25 Dinar note is worth $87,500 in USD, a single Dinar is now worth approximately $3,500. That's right. A single Dinar is worth over 875 TIMES the value of the highest currency in the world right now. If you thought that some of the "predictions" of $7+, $8+, and $12+ rates were crazy, think about the new Dinar being worth 300, 500, or 800 TIMES that rate. It's just not going to happen! This is not likely and virtually impossible.
Initial Conclusions
Unfortunately from my point of view, only #6 above matches a likely currency valuation of the Dinar with the overall currency in Circulation from the examples in the Circulation links above. The conclusion I have drawn based on what I know at this point, is that IF the zeroes are removed, we will make at most something like 4 times our initial investment and maybe only break even.
I have heard many people say that a "LOP" will not happen. I don't really know or care what anything is called, but there are very few scenarios of how zeroes could be removed and currency could be revalued besides what is listed above. We only make money in 2, 4, 6, and 8 but the only one that is even remotely likely is #6. I really hope I'm wrong and there's some magical transfiguration of currencies. Or that all the articles about removing the zeroes is not true at all and has just been a big "smoke" campaign to throw us off. But I really can't see them investing that much time, effort, consumer education, and newsprint for a story that is completely fabricated.
I have not bothered to address the timing or the rate of the RV at all. That's because I think the timing and rate aren't really critical details when the likely return is 1-4 times at best. That means if you put in $1,000 to buy 1,000,000 Dinar, then you are likely to get back somewhere between $1,000-$4,000 if scenario #6 above happens. This obviously differs from what most of us believe. And I really don't want that to happen, it just seems the most logical to me.
I don't believe the exact timing of the RV and a modest difference in rate will matter that much if the scenario I think is most likely is what actually happens. However, other than some people that keep "hyping" things, I don't believe this is a scam. I think it is a risky investment that should be approached cautiously. If you have/had the funds to invest and did so without detriment to yourself or your family, then you should hope for the best return possible. I also didn't address any spiritual implications of this even though I'm fully aware that God can and does do miracles every day. I believe he can make anything happen but at the end of the day, the math of the situation is pretty critical to explaining what happened...
Again, I have based my information on news articles and basic mathematics to come to my conclusions and not on information by any gurus, intel providers, etc. This is an extremely complex global issue but to some degree, the math has to work out. Even if governments play games with the numbers of budgets and internal finances, the basic math of currency conversion has to have some basis in fact. Here's hoping I'm wrong….